Forex Market: EUR/USD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.0938-1.0847, a 2-1/2-week low. The pair closed at 1.0906, up 0.23% on a daily basis, ending two days of losses.

At 06:57 GMT today EUR/USD was up 0.06% for the day to trade at 1.0912. The pair held in a daily range of 1.0898 – 1.0942 and is down 0.7% for the week.

Fundamentals

Eurozone

German seasonally adjusted factory orders, an indicator gauging the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable and non-durable goods, rose 2.0% in June, sharply exceeding projections for a 0.2% gain and reversing a downward-revised 0.3% contraction in May. Year-on-year, factory orders were up 7.2%, compared to projections of 5.2%, following a downward-revised 4.5% the previous month. Factory orders are a key indicator for analyzing the short-term trend in production in Germany but can be very volatile because they are heavily affected by large one-off business deals, geopolitical events and economic shocks.

A separate report by Markit Economics to be released at 08:10 GMT will give an insight into the Eurozones retail sector activity. Junes Retail Purchasing Managers Index came in at a value of 50.4 after jumping to a 49-month high of 51.4 in May, which ended ten straight months of contraction. Junes performance was boosted mainly by robust growth in Germany, while Italy was the main drag and Frances downturn eased.

United States

The number of corporate layoffs in the US in July likely rose to 58 200, Challenger, Gray, & Christmas is expected to report. The Challenger Job Cuts indicator registered a reading of 44 800 in June, up from 41 000 in May.

The report provides monthly information on the number of corporate layoffs by industry and region and serves as a gauge for investors to assess the strength of the countrys labor market. The data are due out at 11:30 GMT.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans who filed for unemployment assistance for the first time during the week ended August 1st probably rose to 273 000 from 267 000 in the previous seven days. The 4-week moving average, an indicator used to iron out week-to-week volatility, was at 274 750 last week, below the previous weeks average of 278 500.

Initial jobless claims number is a short-term indicator, reflecting lay-offs in the country. In case the count of claims rose more than projected, this would have a bearish effect on the greenback.

The number of continuing jobless claims probably fell to 2 240 000 during the week ended July 25th from a worse-than-expected 2 262 000 the previous period. This indicator reflects the actual number of people unemployed and currently receiving unemployment benefits, who filed for unemployment assistance at least two weeks ago. The Department of Labor is to release the weekly report at 12:30 GMT.

Pivot points

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the pair’s central pivot point stands at 1.0897. In case it penetrates the first resistance level at 1.0947, it will encounter next resistance at 1.0988. If breached, upside movement may attempt to advance to 1.1038.

If the cross drops below its S1 level at 1.0856, it will next see support at 1.0806. If the second key support zone is breached, downward movement may extend to 1.0765.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.1003. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.1114, R2 – 1.1240, R3 – 1.1351. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.0877, S2 – 1.0766, S3 – 1.0640.