Forex Market: USD/BGN daily forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/BGN within the range of 1.4587-1.4617. The pair closed at 1.4614, gaining 0.16% on a daily basis.

At 6:51 GMT today USD/BGN was up 0.12% for the day to trade at 1.4630. The pair breached the first two daily resistance levels and touched a daily high at 1.4638 at 6:45 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

The United States probably recorded a government budget deficit of 96.0 billion USD in July, according to market expectations, after a surplus of 70.519 billion USD during the previous month. The largest budget deficit on record was registered in February 2012, or 231.677 billion USD. A wider than projected deficit would have a bearish effect on the greenback. The Financial Management Service, US Treasury is to publish the official figure at 18:00 GMT.

Bulgaria

Bulgarian annualized index of consumer prices (CPI) probably continued to slide, reaching -3.35% in July, from -1.90% in June. Nations CPI hit an all-time low at -2.60% in February this year, while it has been in negative territory since September 2013. The index measures the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also reflects purchasing trends. In case consumer inflation slowed down more than anticipated, this would mount selling pressure on the lev. The National Statistical Institute is to release the official CPI report at 8:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 1.4606. In case USD/BGN manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.4625, it will probably continue up to test 1.4636. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.4655.

If USD/BGN manages to breach the first key support at 1.4595, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.4576. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.4565.

The mid-Pivot levels for today are as follows: M1 – 1.4571, M2 – 1.4586, M3 – 1.4601, M4 – 1.4616, M5 – 1.4631, M6 – 1.4646.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 1.4604. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 1.4649, R2 – 1.4712, R3 – 1.4757. The three key support levels are: S1 – 1.4541, S2 – 1.4496, S3 – 1.4433.