Forex Market: AUD/USD daily forecast

During Friday’s trading session AUD/USD traded within the range of 0.9412-0.9470 and closed at 0.9417.

At 9:18 GMT AUD/USD traded at 0.9406, losing 0.13% for the day. The pair touched a daily low at 0.9402 at 3:00 GMT.

Fundamental view

The index of pending home sales in the United States probably rose 0.4% during June compared to May, according to the median estimate by experts, following a 6.1% gain in May, that was the biggest since May 2013.

When a sales contract is accepted for a property, it is recorded as a pending home sale. As an indicator the index provides information on the number of future home sales, which are in the pipeline. It gathers data from real estate agents and brokers at the point of a sale of contract and is currently the most accurate indicator regarding US housing sector. It samples over 20% of the market. In addition, over 80% of pending house sales are converted to actual home sales within two or three months. Therefore, this index has a predictive value about actual home sales.

Although there are some cancellations, they are not enough for the data to be skewed one way or another. The base value of the index is equal to 100, while the base year is 2001, when there has been a high level of home sales. The National Association of Realtor’s (NAR) will release the official index value at 14:00 GMT. In case pending home sales increased more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback.

In addition, the preliminary Markit US Services Business Activity Index, adjusted for seasonal influences, probably slowed down to 60.5 this month. In June the index came in at 61.0, signalling the strongest rate of output growth since the survey began in October 2009.

The market research group, Markit Economics is scheduled to publish an official report at 13:45 GMT. Higher than expected readings would boost greenbacks demand.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, the central pivot point for the pair is at 0.9404. In case AUD/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.9415, it will probably continue up to test 0.9435. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.9446.

If AUD/USD manages to breach the first key support at 0.9382, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.9373. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.9353.

In weekly terms, the central pivot point is at 0.9409. The three key resistance levels are as follows: R1 – 0.9456, R2 – 0.9518, R3 – 0.9565. The three key support levels are: S1 – 0.9347, S2 – 0.9300, S3 – 0.9238.