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Commodities trading outlook: crude oil and natural gas futures

WTI and Brent futures were higher during afternoon trade in Europe today, as the EIA posted the weekly US oil report. Meanwhile, natural gas futures were higher, after another sizable daily loss on Tuesday.

West Texas Intermediate futures for settlement in August traded for $100.69 per barrel at 14:35 GMT on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 0.73%. Prices ranged from $101.00 to $100.07 per barrel. The US contract dropped 0.94% yesterday, after adding 0.08% on Monday.

Meanwhile on the ICE in London, Brent futures due in September stood for a 0.29% gain at $107.19 per barrel. Daily high and low stood at $107.64 and $106.75 per barrel, respectively. Brent’s premium to September WTI stood at $6.99, after last session’s closing margin of $7.35. The European contract lost 0.77% yesterday, after gaining 0.42% on Monday.

US oil report

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) posted its weekly oil inventories report for the seven day through July 11 today. The log revealed a 7.525 million-barrel for commercial crude oil inventories, after the private American Petroleum Institute (API) had suggested a 4.8 million-barrel draw on Tuesday. A Bloomberg survey had projected a 2.75 million-barrel drop. The previous reading, for the week through July 4, showed crude inventories had dropped 2.4 million barrels.

Oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the NYMEX contract and the largest hub in the US, was reported at 20.3 million barrels for a 0.6 million-barrel drop, after an increase of 0.4 million was logged for the previous week. Meanwhile, hubs at the Gulf Coast saw 2.8 million barrels drawn, after a further 4.2 million drop was reported last week.

Domestic production of crude oil was little changed for a reading of 8.592 million barrels per day (bpd), after more minor changes over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, imports of crude were slightly up at 7.427 million bpd.

Gasoline inventories added 0.171 million barrels for the week through July 11, while the API had reported a 1.6 million-barrel draw. Distillate fuels stockpiles levels increased by 2.528 million barrels, while the API posted a 1.3 million-barrel decrease on Tuesday.

Refinery utilization rate was up 2.2% for a standing of 93.8%, and a total increase of more than 7% for the last three weeks. Gasoline production this week was slightly lower at 9.775 million bpd, while distillates output averaged 5.172 million bpd.

Natural gas

Front month natural gas futures, due in August, were up 0.98% at the New York Mercantile Exchange to trade for $4.137 per million British thermal units at 14:08 GMT today. Prices ranged from $4.084 to $4.142 per mBtu. The contract added lost 1.21% on Tuesday, reaching a six-month low of $4.081 per mBtu, after a 0.02% gain on Monday.

The Marcellus shale deposit in the US Northeast is logging record output, as gross output from the region will average 15.235 billion cubic feet a day this month, up 28 percent from a year earlier, the EIA said in a report on Monday.

“This is the latest round of big numbers from the Marcellus,” Martin King, an analyst with FirstEnergy Capital Corp. in Calgary, said for Bloomberg yesterday. “There’s too much supply in the region and there’s not enough takeaway capacity. That regional sentiment is probably weighing on Nymex prices to some degree.”

NatGasWeather.com suggested an injection of 95-100 Bcf will be reported in this week’s log, about 25 Bcf more than the 5-year average gain for the reported week. However, next week’s build up is suggested to be some 45-50 Bcf above the average, which would be the biggest gain this summer season.

The official report for the week ended July 11 is due this Thursday.

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