Forex Market: EUR/CHF forecast for Monday

During Friday’s trading session EUR/CHF traded within the range of 1.2153-1.2163 and closed at 1.2159.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

German seasonally adjusted index of industrial production probably increased 0.2% in May compared to a month ago, following another 0.2% gain in April. The index reflects the change in overall inflation-adjusted value of output in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and utilities. In case industrial output expanded more than anticipated, this would support demand for the euro. Destatis is to publish the official data at 6:00 GMT on Monday.

Spanish annualized industrial production probably expanded 3.8% in May, according to market expectations, after in April output rose 4.3%. Spains Instituto Nacional de Estadistica will release the official report at 7:00 GMT.

Confidence among investors in the Euro zone was probably lower during the current month, with the corresponding index coming in at a reading of 8.0. In June it stood at 8.5. The index is based on results from the SENTIX survey, one of the most prominent surveys, reflecting investors’ opinion in Germany. It encompasses 2 800 respondents, with 510 of them being institutional investors. Respondents present their expectations regarding ten different markets for a period of one and six months. Readings above zero indicate that respondents were predominantly optimistic, while readings below zero show pessimism. Higher than expected readings would provide support to the common currency. The official result is expected at 8:30 GMT.

Switzerland

Seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment in Switzerland probably remained unchanged at 3.2% in June, according to the median forecast by experts. It represents the percentage of the eligible work force that is unemployed, but is actively seeking employment. In case the unemployment rate met expectations or even fell further, this would have a bullish effect on the franc. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is to release the official rate at 5:45 GMT on Monday.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/CHF manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.2165, it will probably continue up to test 1.2169. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.2175.

If EUR/CHF manages to breach the first key support at 1.2153, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.2147. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.2143.