Forex Market: EUR/GBP daily forecast

During Friday’s trading session EUR/GBP traded within the range of 0.7992-0.8018 and closed at 0.8008.

At 7:42 GMT today EUR/GBP was gaining 0.16% for the day to trade at 0.8021. The pair breached the first key resistance and touched a daily high at 0.8025 at 7:44 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

The annualized preliminary consumer price index in the Euro zone, evaluated in accordance with Eurostat’s harmonized methodology, probably accelerated to 0.6% in June, according to the median forecast by experts. In May the annualized final HICP stood at 0.5%, as reported on June 16th. The index shows the change in price levels of a basket of goods and services from consumer’s perspective and also reflects purchasing trends. The HICP is used to evaluate and compare inflation rates between Member States, according to Art . 121 of the Amsterdam’s Agreement and directives by the European Central Bank (ECB), in order to achieve price stability and the implementation of monetary policy. In case the HICP increased more than anticipated, thus, approaching the 2% inflation objective set by the ECB, this would support demand for the euro, because of the greater possibility of an interest rate hike. Eurostat is scheduled to release the official data at 9:00 GMT.

In addition, the annualized preliminary consumer price index in Italy probably fell to 0.3% in June, after a month ago the final CPI stood at 0.5%. Nations annualized preliminary CPI for June, evaluated in accordance with the harmonized methodology, probably matched the final HICP estimate of 0.4% in May, which was reported on June 13th. The National Institute of Statistics is to release the official CPI report at 9:00 GMT.

United Kingdom

The number of mortgage approvals in the United Kingdom probably dropped to 64 750 in April, according to experts’ expectations, from 67 135 during the prior month. Mortgage approvals are considered as a leading indicator, reflecting the health of country’s housing market. in case the number of mortgage approvals increases more than anticipated, this implies housing sector strength and a positive impulse for overall economy. Therefore, the national currency would also be supported. Bank of England will release the official numbers at 8:30 GMT.

Net lending secured on dwellings in the United Kingdom, which include bridging loans made by banks and other lenders, probably was at the amount of 1.60 billion GBP in May, according to the median forecast by experts. A month ago mortgage lending amounted to 1.72 billion GBP.

Consumer credit in the country probably expanded to 0.700 billion GBP in May from 0.666 billion GBP in April. It represents borrowing by the UK personal sector (individuals only) to fund current expenditures on goods and services, which are a driving force behind economic growth. In case lending to individuals expanded more than expected, this would have a bullish effect on the pound. Bank of England (BoE) is to release the official data at 8:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/GBP manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.8020, it will probably continue up to test 0.8032. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.8046.

If EUR/GBP manages to breach the first key support at 0.7994, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.7980. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.7968.