Forex Market: EUR/GBP daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/GBP traded within the range of 0.7977-0.7997 and closed at 0.7989.

At 6:22 GMT today EUR/GBP was losing 0.04% for the day to trade at 0.7987. The pair touched a daily low at 0.7984 at 4:05 GMT.

Fundamental view

Euro zone

At 08:00 GMT, the Ifo Institute for Economic Research will publish its IFO Business Climate Index for Germany, the largest economy in the Euro zone. The index is expected to have slightly deteriorated to 110.2 this month, from 110.4 in May.

The index is based on a monthly survey among 7,000 respondents from companies in the manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail sectors. Respondents give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They characterize their companies’ situation as “good”, ” satisfactory” or ” poor ” and their expectations for their business over the next six months as ” more favorable “, ” unchanged ” or ” more unfavorable ”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference between the percentages of respondents that answered the situation is “good” and those that assess it is “bad”, while the value of the balance for future business expectations is the difference between the percentages of the responses ” more favorable ” and ” more unfavorable “.

Ifo business climate index represents the average balance of the two sub-indexes, the sub-index of current conditions and the sub-index of business expectations. The composite index uses a value of 100 points as a separator between the positive and negative forecasts. The more the result gets away from 100 points, the greater the confidence of the respondents.

A higher than expected reading will certainly provide support to the 18-nation common currency.

United Kingdom

The number of approved loans for house purchases in the country probably decreased to 41 000 in May from 42 173 in the preceding month. The British Bankers’ Association will release the official figure at 8:30 GMT.

The indicator is closely watched by traders and other market players as it can be seen as a gauge of the health of the British housing market. The indicator includes more than 50% of the total mortgage market in the UK.

In case, the number of approved mortgages falls less than expected, this would boost sterlings demand.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/GBP manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.7998, it will probably continue up to test 0.8008. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.8018.

If EUR/GBP manages to breach the first key support at 0.7978, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.7968. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.7958.