Forex Market: USD/NOK daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session USD/NOK traded within the range of 5.9989-6.0401 and closed at 6.0089.

At 6:39 GMT today USD/NOK was losing 0.15% for the day to trade at 6.0012. The pair touched a daily low at 6.0004 at 6:38 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

The initial jobless claims in the US probably fell to 314 000 in the week ended June 14th, from 317 000 a week ago, according to the median estimate by experts.

The statistical arm of the US Department of Labor will release an official report at 12:30 GMT today. If jobless claims fall more than expected, this will provide support for the US dollar.

In addition, the Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index probably fell to 14.0 in June from 15.4 in the previous month. The index is based on a monthly business survey, measuring the manufacturing activity in the third district of the Federal Reserve, Philadelphia. Participants indicate the direction of business changes in overall economic activity and different indicators of activity in their company: employment, working hours, new and existing orders, deliveries, inventories, delivery time, price. The survey is conducted every month since May 1968. The results are presented as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative forecasts. A level above zero is indicative of improving conditions, while a level below zero is indicative of worsening conditions. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is expected to release the official results from its monthly survey at 14:00 GMT. A higher than expected reading will certainly provide a boost to US dollar.

Norway

At 8:00 GMT the Norges Bank will announce its decision on interest rates. Analysts expect that the central bank will keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 1.50% at its policy meeting. The key policy rate has been maintained at this level since central bank’s meeting on March 14th 2012, when a 0.25% cut was introduced.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case USD/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 6.0329, it will probably continue up to test 6.0572. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 6.0742.

If USD/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 5.9918, it will probably continue to slide and test 5.9748. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 5.9506.