Grains trading outlook: futures recover after slump on US crops outlooks

Grains futures traded moderately higher during midday trade in Europe today. Yesterday contracts priced in the significantly improving outlook for US crops, reported on Monday. Weather conditions remain largely favorable.

Weather reports forecast frequent, though scattered showers throughout the Midwest this week, which could potentially disrupt fieldwork, to slow remaining planting and possibly force some replanting. The Delta will also see some rain, though the mostly sunny weather will favor crops. In Europe, Ukraine and southwestern Russia will see relatively favorable weather conditions, with some excess rain possible, though the moisture is quite welcome after a prolonged period of heat and drought.

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) posted the weekly report for the seven days through June 1 on Monday. The log revealed well progressing crops, reinforcing earlier forecasts of record-high supplies this year.

“This weather continues to benefit most of the U.S. crop,” Matt Zeller, director of market information at INTL FCStone, said in a note, Reuters reported. “Early-season prospects couldnt be shaping up much better.”

Wheat

Wheat futures for July delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade stood at $6.166 per bushel, gaining 0.69% at 11:33 GMT today, heading towards a second daily gain in twenty sessions. Daily high and low were at $6.176 and $6.106 per bushel, respectively, recording the lowest level in three months. Yesterday the contract lost 1.33% after on Monday it dropped a further 1.04%. Last week the contract declined by 3.00%.

“There would be opportunistic buyers at this level,” said for Bloomberg Vyanne Lai, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. “Planting progress and weather conditions in the U.S. are relatively positive. Planting is on track and so it assuages fears of tightness in supply.”

However, other analysts suggested contracts will probably slide further. Roy Huckabay, Executive Vice President of Linn Group in Chicago, said for Bloomberg: “Overseas customers don’t want expensive U.S. wheat, and corn is cheaper to use in domestic rations. A small rally is going to attract another opportunity to sell the spread.”

The NASS report showed spring wheat planting was 88% done, which is in line with the average, after 74% for last week. 67% of crops had emerged, after 43% was logged in the previous reading.

Meanwhile, 44% of winter wheat was reported of poor or very poor condition, while only 30% were in good or excellent condition. 79% of crops were headed, after a 70% were reported last week.

Corn

Corn futures for July traded for $4.600 per bushel in Chicago at 11:33 GMT today, adding 0.38%. Prices reached a daily high and low at $4.604 and $4.572 per bushel, respectively. Yesterday corn dropped 1.56%, recording the lowest level since February at $4.560 per bushel, after on Monday the contract was almost unchanged. Last week corn futures dropped 1.57%.

The NASS report revealed corn planting had progressed to 95% completion for the week through June 1, on par with the 5-year average rate, after 88% last week. Meanwhile, 80% of corn had emerged, compared to 60% from last week.

76% of crops were reported to be in good or excellent condition, much more than 63% for the same week last year.

“Corn is off to strong start, and that is increasing the potential for a record crop,” Greg Grow, the director of agribusiness for Archer Financial Services Inc. in Chicago, said for Bloomberg. “The forecast signals adequate moisture for continued strong early development.”

Soybeans

The NASS report revealed soybeans planting was 78% complete, after logging 59% last week. The reading is well-above the 5-year average of 70%. Meanwhile, emergence was at 50%, after 25% for the previous week.

Soybean futures for July traded for $14.946 per bushel in Chicago at 11:33 GMT today, adding 0.91%. Prices ranged between $14.956 and $14.756 per bushel. Yesterday the contract declined by 1.28%, after on Monday soybeans added 0.49%. Last week soybeans futures lost 1.47%.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, wheat for July delivery on the CBOT will see its first resistance level at $6.206. If breached, the contract will advance to $6.288 and then to $6.336 per bushel. The first support points is estimated at $6.076. Should it be broken, wheat will test $6.028 and after that $5.946 per bushel.

Corn for July will have its first resistance at $4.635 and if it broken the contract will advance first to $4.687 and then to $4.725 per bushel. The first support level is calculated at $4.545. Should the contract breach that, it will probably continue down to $4.507. If both previous supports are penetrated corn will test $4.455 per bushel.

Soybeans for July have the front resistance level estimated at $14.971. If the contract manages to pass the first level, next resistance is expected at $15.131 and then $15.241 per bushel. Meanwhile, support is expected at $14.701, $14.591 and $14.431 per bushel.