Forex Market: AUD/USD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session AUD/USD traded within the range of 0.9230-0.9287 and closed at 0.9258.

At 11:03 GMT today AUD/USD was adding 0.09% for the day to trade at 0.9274. The pair touched a daily high at 0.9297 at 1:30, breaching the first key resistance.

Fundamental view

Employment in United States’ private sector probably increased by 208 000 during May, following another job gain of 220 000 in the previous month. The report by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) is based on data, encompassing about 400 000 out of 500 000 business entities with over 24 million employees engaged in 19 major sectors of the economy in accordance with North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). It usually comes out two days before the official employment report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), thus, providing clues over the tendency in nation’s non-farming sector. In case employment increases more than anticipated, this would have a bullish effect on the greenback. The report is expected at 12:15 GMT.

In addition, the deficit on United States’ trade balance probably shrank to 40.60 billion USD during April, according to the median forecast by experts, from a deficit of 40.378 billion USD in the previous month. The trade balance, as an indicator, measures the difference in value between country’s exported and imported goods and services during the reported period. It reflects the net export of goods and services, or one of the components to form country’s Gross Domestic Product. Generally, exports reflect economic growth, while imports indicate domestic demand. In case the trade balance deficit contracts more than expected, this will provide support to US dollar. The Bureau of Economic Analysis is to release the official figure at 12:30 GMT.

Moreover, activity in United States’ sector of services probably rose to a seven-month high in May, with the corresponding non-manufacturing PMI coming in at a reading of 55.3 according to expectations, from 55.1 in April. This is a compound index, based on the values of four equally-weighted components, that comprise it. These sub-indexes reflect seasonally adjusted new orders, seasonally adjusted employment, seasonally adjusted business activity and shipments.

Readings above the key level of 50.0 are indicative of expanding activity. In case market expectations are exceeded, US dollar would be boosted. The Institute for Supply Management is scheduled to release official data at 14:00 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case AUD/USD manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.9287, it will probably continue up to test 0.9315. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.9344.

If AUD/USD manages to breach the first key support at 0.9230, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.9201. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.9173.