Grains trading outlook: wheat adds on worsening crop conditions, soybeans on growing exports

Grain futures traded higher during early trading in Europe today. Wheat advanced on reported worsening crop conditions in the US. Soybeans exports recorded a sizable growth, supporting the contract. Weather conditions will be generally good for crops, with plenty of sun in most areas, and some much needed rains in others.

Weather reports for the US project a mostly favorable week for crops. The Midwest might expect some slowdown in planting activities, due to localized rains. The northern Plains will be warming and drying up in the following days, improving conditions for fieldwork. The southern Plains will see two or three more days of dry heat, followed by much awaited rains, which will ease winter wheat, delaying fieldwork at the same time. However, more heat might be coming to the region next week. The Delta will be warm and dry. In Europe, eastern Ukraine and the Volga region in Russia measured temperatures in the high 90s over the weekend. Forecasts of further temperature increases and few rains raised negative sentiment for wheat crops.

Wheat

Wheat futures for July delivery on the Chicago Board of Trade stood at $6.846 per bushel, adding 1.52% at 9:51 GMT today. Daily high and low were at $6.860 and $6.740 per bushel, respectively, reaching a two-week high. Yesterday the contract added 0.04% after falling almost 7% last week.

“Generally the rain was viewed as stabilizing parts of the U.S. wheat crop that were viewed as a concern, so it helped in that regard but may not improve yields,” said for Bloomberg Paul Deane, analyst at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.

The weekly National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), released yesterday, revealed 57% of winter wheat acreage in the 18 major states has headed by May 18, in line with the 5-year average. Meanwhile, 44% of crops were reported in poor or very poor condition, while only 29% were said to be better than average.

Spring wheat planting in the 6 states, accounting for 99% of the production, was lagging behind historic figures. Only 49% of planned crops have been planted, behind 68% for the 5-year average, while only 24% have emerged, below the 40% 5-year average.

Soybeans

Soybean futures for July traded for $14.940 per bushel in Chicago at 9:57 GMT today, adding 0.59%. Prices ranged between $14.950 and $14.832 per bushel, reaching the highest price in three weeks. Yesterday the contract added 1.38% after it lost more than 1.20% last week.

The US Department of Agriculture reported a 64% annual increase in inspected and ready for export soybeans. Shipments also added 22%. US stockpiles before the start of the 2014 harvest are expected to stand at 3.8% of domestic consumption plus exports, indicating razor thin inventories.

“We don’t have 90 million sold yet to the U.S.,” said for Bloomberg Dan Cekander, director of grain market research at Newedge USA LLC in Chicago. “Supplies are going to be tight.”

The NASS report also showed soybeans planting was also lagging behind the average for the week through May 18. 33% of acreage across the 18 major states was planted, while the 5-year average is at 38%.

Meanwhile, 9% of soybean acreage had already emerged. Last year the standing for the period was at 3%, while the 5-year average is at 11%.

Corn

Corn futures for July traded for $4.800 per bushel in Chicago at 9:38 GMT today, rising by 0.58%. Prices reached a daily high and low at $4.806 and $4.770 per bushel, respectively. Yesterday the contract fell by 1.29%, recording the deepest trough in tow months at $4.762. Last week the contract lost almost 4%.

The NASS report showed 73% of corn acreage across 18 major states was planted by May 18, after the recorded 59% last week. The 5-year average for the week is at 76%, while last year the reading was at 65%.

Meanwhile, 34% of corn crops had emerged, after 18% last week. Last years reading for the period stood at 17%, while the 5-year average is at 42%.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribunes daily analysis, wheat for July on the CBOT will see its resistance levels at $6.8087, $6.8733 and $6.9647 per bushel. Support points are estimated at $6.6527, $6.5613 and $6.4967 per bushel.

Corn will have resistance at $4.8100, $4.8480 and $4.8720 per bushel, while support levels are calculated at $4.7480, $4.7240 and $4.6860 per bushel.

Soybeans will have resistance at $14.998, $15.144 and $15.362 per bushel, while support is expected at $14.634, $14.416 and $14.270 per bushel.