Forex Market: EUR/NOK daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/NOK traded within the range of 8.2786-8.3197 and closed at 8.2970.

At 06:11 GMT today EUR/NOK was losing 0.13% for the day to trade at 8.2909. The pair touched a daily low at 8.2888 at 06:05 GMT.

Fundamental view

Norway

Retail Sales in Norway probably inched up 0.1% in March, following a 0.6% gain in the previous month.

Retail trade is defined as trade of goods, which are intended for use by private households or individual users. This category includes sales of motor vehicles, along with motorcycles for personal use, as well as their fuel supply through intermediaries to end users. Retail sales also include office equipment and technology, paint, wood , etc., if they are sold directly to end users. The index is based on a sample of over 13 200 units of the VAT register of the country, covering one quarter of all companies in the sector. This is the percentage change compared to the previous month.

Statistics Norway is scheduled to release an official report at 8:00 GMT. A larger-than-expected jump in retail sales, would certainly provide support to the Norwegian krona.

Euro zone

The flash (preliminary) reading of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in the Euro zone probably rose 0.8% in April, from a final reading of 0.5% in the previous month, according to the median estimate by experts. The final reading, which was posted in March, was the weakest since October 2009. The HICP is used to measure and compare inflation between Member States. It is used for further evaluation of inflation, according to Art . 121 of the Amsterdam’s Agreement and directives of the European Central Bank to achieve price stability and the implementation of monetary policy. HICP is calculated based on international harmonized standards adopted by Member States. This is the percentage change compared to the corresponding month of the previous year.

Eurostat is scheduled to release the official report at 09:00 GMT. A weaker-than-expected reading may prompt the ECB to ease monetary policy in order to avoid risks of deflation. However, higher-than-expected reading will probably relieve pressure on central bank’s officials and they will not need to take imminent actions.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/NOK manages to breach the first resistance level at 8.3182, it will probably continue up to test 8.3395. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 8.3594.

If EUR/NOK manages to breach the first key support at 8.2772, it will probably continue to slide and test 8.2573. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 8.2361.