Forex Market: USD/CAD daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session USD/CAD traded within the range of 1.0961-1.1034 and closed at 1.1011.

At 11:13 GMT today USD/CAD was gaining 0.03% for the day to trade at 1.1016. The pair touched a daily low at 1.0997 at 06:45 GMT.

Fundamental view

United States

The initial jobless claims in the US probably rose to 315 000 in the week ended April 12th, from 300 000 a week ago, according to the median estimate by experts. The indicator measures the number of applications for unemployment benefits that are recorded each week in a report prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the United States. Initial application or (Initial Claim) means a completed document from an unemployed person before the local government, which is considered a claim for compensation or the possibility of compensation. The completion of the initial claim marks the beginning of a period in which the applicant receives unemployment benefits. The survey covers the number of applications registered in the previous week and is an important indicator concerning the health of the US labor market.

The statistical arm of the US Department of Labor will release an official report at 12:30 GMT today. If jobless claims rose less than expected, this will provide support for the US dollar.

In addition, the Philadelphia FED Manufacturing Index probably rose to 10.0 in April from 9.0 in the previous month, indicating improving activity in the manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

The index is a monthly business survey, measuring the manufacturing activity in the third district of the Federal Reserve, Philadelphia. Participants indicate the direction of the business changes in overall economic activity and different indicators for the activities in their company: employment, working hours, new and existing orders, deliveries, inventories, delivery time, price. The survey is conducted every month from May 1968 onwards. The results are presented as the difference between the percentages of positive and negative predictions. A level above zero is indicative of improving conditions, while a level below zero is indicative of worsening conditions.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is expected to release the official results from its monthly survey at 12:30 GMT. Higher-than-expected readings will certainly heighten the appeal of the greenback.

Canada

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada probably rose 1.4% in March, compared to the same period a year ago, according to the median analysts’ estimate. In February, consumer prices jumped 1.1%.The CPI is an indicator that takes into account changes in consumer prices of goods and services consumed by Canadians. Obtained by comparing the prices of a basket of goods consumed by households for different periods of time. The index reflects only the net price changes, as it contains only items with the same quality and quantity compared to previous periods. The index is used as an indicator of change in core consumer prices and hence inflation. Changes in prices of goods and services are presented, according to their relative importance to the costs incurred by consumers for their acquisition. Consumer basket items are updated every four years and are derived from a household survey on savings and food costs. This is the percentage change in the index over the corresponding month a year earlier.

The Core CPI probably advanced by 1.3% in the previous month from a year ago, according to the median forecast by experts. The Core Consumer Price Index differs from the basic CPI measure as it doesn’t take into account the indirect taxes and eight most volatile components identified by the Bank of Canada- fruit, fruit and nuts; mortgage costs, natural gas and other fuels, oils and other lubricants, public transport, tobacco products and supplies. This is the percentage change compared to the same month a year earlier.

Statistics Canada will publish its monthly report at 12:30 GMT today. Higher-than-expected readings will certainly heighten the loonie’s appeal.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case USD/CAD manages to breach the first resistance level at 1.1043, it will probably continue up to test 1.1075. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 1.1116.

If USD/CAD manages to breach the first key support at 1.0970, it will probably continue to slide and test 1.0929. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 1.0897.