Forex Market: EUR/GBP daily forecast

During yesterday’s trading session EUR/GBP traded within the range of 0.8262-0.8285 and closed at 0.8274.

At 6:33 GMT today EUR/GBP was losing 0.05% for the day to trade at 0.8270. The pair touched a daily low at 0.8268 at 6:32 GMT.

Fundamental view

The deficit on Frances trade balance probably shrank to 4.900 billion EUR during February from a deficit figure of 5.732 billion EUR in January. Nations trade balance reflects the difference in value between exported and imported goods during the respective period. Export demand has a direct link to demand for the national currency and also causes an impact on levels of production. In case Frances trade balance deficit contracted more than projected in February, this would have a bullish effect on the euro. The Ministry of Finance will publish the official figure at 6:45 GMT.

At the same time, the deficit on Frances budget balance probably expanded to 22.0 billion EUR in February from a deficit of 12.7 billion EUR during the prior month. The government budget balance reflects the difference in value between governments income and expenditure during the year-to-date. In case Frances budget deficit widened more than anticipated, this would have a bearish effect on the common currency. The official report is due out at 6:45 GMT.

Meanwhile, annualized industrial output in the United Kingdom probably expanded 2.2% in February, following another 2.9% increase during the preceding month. In monthly terms, industrial production probably increased 0.3% in February. The index presents the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of production in sectors such as manufacturing, mining and energetics.

UKs annualized manufacturing production, a short-term indicator which accounts for almost 80% of nations industrial output, probably expanded 3.1% in February. In January manufacturing output rose at an annualized pace of 3.3%. In monthly terms, production probably increased 0.2% during February. As it is a key component of countrys Gross Domestic Product, in case manufacturing production expanded more than projected in February, this would have a bullish effect on the sterling. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the official figures at 8:30 GMT.

Technical view

According to Binary Tribune’s daily analysis, in case EUR/GBP manages to breach the first resistance level at 0.8285, it will probably continue up to test 0.8297. In case the second key resistance is broken, the pair will probably attempt to advance to 0.8308.

If EUR/GBP manages to breach the first key support at 0.8262, it will probably continue to slide and test 0.8251. With this second key support broken, the movement to the downside will probably continue to 0.8239.