Forex Market: Outlook for AUD/USD during the upcoming week

Australian dollar traded in proximity to its highest point for the day against the US rival during late US session on Friday, after on Thursday an index of economic surprises for Australia by Citigroup climbed to highs unseen in ten months, which continued to support the Aussie.

AUD/USD climbed to a daily high at 0.9100 at 17:20 GMT, after which the pair closed at 0.9082, rising 0.46% for the day and also up 0.55% for the week. Support was likely to be received at March 20th low, 0.8996, while resistance was to be encountered at March 19th high, 0.9134.

Citigroup Inc. reported that its Economic Surprise Index for Australia stood at 50.10 on Thursday, after climbing to as high as 50.60 on March 13th, which has been the highest level since May 23rd 2013. A positive reading is indicative that actual data releases surpass estimates by experts.

Earlier on Friday the Conference Board research group said that its Leading index for Australia rose 0.2% in January, following another 0.9% increase in December. This is a key indicator, on which short-term and intermediate-term economic growth forecasts for the country are usually based.

The Aussie lost certain ground against the broadly strong greenback after at its meeting on policy, concluded on March 19th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to pare back its monthly monetary stimulus by another 10 billion USD to 55 billion USD, while stating that asset purchases will be reduced by “further measured steps.”

The Committee also dropped the unemployment rate threshold for considering when to raise interest rates, making a transition to a wider set of data.

At a press conference after her first meeting as Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen said there might be a “considerable time” between the end of the stimulus program and the first increase in borrowing costs, meaning “around six months or that type of thing”.

During the week ahead investors attention will be focused on the final value of the US Gross Domestic Product, scheduled to be released on Thursday, while another closely watched report, encompassing US durable goods orders, will be published on Wednesday.

AUD/USD may be influenced by a number of reports/events, which are expected during the upcoming week, as follows:

On Monday (March 24th) Markit Economics is to announce the preliminary reading of its manufacturing PMI for the United States during March.

On Tuesday (March 25th) the Conference Board research group will announce the results from its survey on consumer confidence in March, which encompasses over 5 000 households in the United States.

S&P/Case-Shiller will report on the performance of their home price index in January, which represents data coming from 20 large cities in the United States.

A separate report will present the number of new homes sold in the country during February, a key indicator for current housing market activity.

On Wednesday (March 26th) Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens is expected to take a statement at 6:00 GMT.

At 12:30 GMT the United States will publish a report on durable goods orders for February, an indicator, representing a key part of nations overall factory orders.

On Thursday (March 27th) the United States is expected to report on its final annualized Gross Domestic Product during the fourth quarter of 2013, a key indicator for countrys overall economic activity.

This report will be followed by weekly data regarding the number of initial jobless claims during the week ended on March 22nd, an indicator for lay-offs in the United States.

At 14:00 GMT the National Association of Realtors (NAR) will release data regarding pending home sales in February, an indicator for future housing sector activity.

On Friday (March 28th) the United States will release data, encompassing personal income and personal spending during February.

At 13:55 GMT Thomson Reuters in cooperation with the University of Michigan will announce the final reading of their gauge of consumer confidence in March.