NZD/USD little changed ahead of US non-farm payrolls report

New Zealand dollar was trading little changed against its US counterpart on Tuesday, as markets awaited the crucial September report on the change in non-farm payrolls, scheduled for release out of the United States later in the day.

Having slipped to a session low at 0.8439 at 4:15 GMT, NZD/USD cross consolidated at 0.8453, marking a slight 0.02% dip on a daily basis. Support was likely to be received at October 17th low, 0.8416, while resistance was to be encountered at June 5th high, 0.8556.

Employers in the US private sector probably added more job positions in September than in August, while the rate of unemployment remained at the lowest level since 2008. Non-farm payrolls increased by 180 000 in September, marking their highest level since April, following the 169 000 new jobs added in August, in accordance with the median estimate of 93 respondents in a survey by Bloomberg News. “Payrolls will look a little better” compared with the previous few months, said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, cited by the same media. “From here on, we’ll see some impact from the shutdown, though I wouldn’t expect that to be long-lived. As the overall economy improves, it will lift the labor market along with it.” However, the projected increase in payrolls during September would still be below the average monthly increase of 195 000 during the first six months of this year. Through August, the United States had managed to recover 6.8 million of the 8.7 million lost jobs due to the 18-month recessionary period, which ended in June 2009.

At the same time, it is expected that the recently ended partial government shutdown will cause an impact upon the US Gross Domestic Product during the final quarter of the year and also prompt the Federal Reserve Bank to delay its plans of paring back the monthly pace of its monetary stimulus, which tends to debase the national currency. Currently the Federal Reserve purchases 85 billion USD per month of mortgage-backed securities. Some economists have pointed March next year as the starting month of tapering, with the scale of the central bank’s asset purchases being reduced to 70 billion USD per month.

Also, yesterday it became clear that existing home sales in the United States dropped 1.9% in September on a monthly basis, reaching 5.29 million houses. The rate of increase in August has been revised down to 5.39 million units from the initially estimated 5.48 million. However, existing home sales in July and August have reached their highest level since 2009.

Meanwhile, among the 10 strategists participated in a survey by the New Zealand Herald at the start of the week, 7 expected that the New Zealand dollar will rise in value, 1 suggested it will decrease and 2 predicted it will demonstrate a flat performance.

Elsewhere, the kiwi was steady against the Australian dollar, as AUD/NZD cross gained 0.04% for the day to trade at 1.1426 at 6:44 GMT.