Gold retreats on Fed stimulus outlook

Gold fell for the first time in six days as a stronger greenback pushed dollar-denominated commodities down amid expectations that Thursdays U.S. data will back the case that the Federal Reserve will begin tapering its monetary easing program in September. The metals relative strength index suggested that prices are poised to decline.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at $1 408.60 per troy ounce at 8:12 GMT, down 0.72% on the day. Prices held in range between days high and low of $1 418.50 and $1 404.80 an ounce respectively. The precious metal fell for the first time in six days, trimming its weekly advance to 0.80% after surging 6.3% in the preceding two weeks.

Gold retreated from Wednesdays high of $1 433.50 per ounce, the strongest level since May 14, as a stronger dollar weighed on the market. The U.S. currency was boosted in expectation for upbeat U.S. data coming later on Thursday, which should support a Quantitative Easing tapering in September. Numbers from today may show that the U.S. economy expanded more in the second quarter than previously estimated. The U.S. Preliminary Revised GDP is likely to have grown by 2.2%, up form July 31s Advance GDP reading of 1.7%. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims data may show that the number of people who filed for initial jobless benefits in the week ended August 24 have fallen.

The dollar index, which tracks the greenbacks performance against six major peers, rose for a second day and traded at 81.83 at 8:13 GMT, up 0.49% on the day. Prices ranged between days high of 81.90, the strongest level since August 13, while days low was touched at 81.42. The U.S. currency gauge rose 0.4% on Wednesday and extended its weekly advance to 0.5%.

Phil Streible, a senior commodity broker at R.J. O’Brien & Associates in Chicago, said for Bloomberg: “The dollar strength is working against gold. The market is taking a pause after the sharp rally.”

Gold has been tracking shifting expectations for whether the Federal Reserve will wind down its bond purchasing program in the second half of the year. An exit from the stimulus program would deliver a heavy blow to the metal as it is mainly used as a hedge against inflation, which tends to arise when central banks easy money supply. The gold market went bearish in April as many investors lost faith in the metal as a safe haven for wealth preservation. The low prices however spurred physical demand for coins, bullion and jewelry in its top consumers, as well as reserves expansion and assets diversification by many central banks.

Gold rose to a 3 1/2-month high on Wednesday as safe-haven buying continued to underpin the market following the escalating tension in Syria. According to a U.S. official, President Barack Obama and his allies are working to define the objectives of a military strike against Syria. It won’t be limited to a one-day operation but Obama said on Wednesday that a “tailored, limited” strike, unlike the unpopular Iraq war, might be enough to send a message that the use of chemical weaponry will not be tolerated. Obama made clear that any military intervention will be limited to avoid dragging the U.S. in another war in the Middle East. Adding to the built up pressure, the U.S. and Great Britain said they are prepared to launch a military attack without being authorized by the U.N. security council.

Alexandra Knight, an economist at National Australia Bank Ltd., said for Bloomberg: “Whether Fed tapering will begin is hinged on data outcomes, so participants will be looking out for whether the data is strong or soft. The increased fear factor is giving support to safe-haven assets like gold.”

Elsewhere on the precious metals market, silver, platinum and palladium fell on the day. Silver December futures plunged 1.63% to $24.025 an ounce at 8:09 GMT. The precious metal retreated from yesterdays four-month high of $25.165 and ranged between days high and low of $24.438 and $23.712 per ounce respectively. Platinum of October delivery traded at $1 528.40 an ounce, marking a 0.76% daily decline. Futures held in days range between $1 541.25 and $1 525.90 an ounce. Palladium December futures fell by 0.81% to $742.20 an ounce and ranged between days high and low of $747.70 and $740.50 respectively.