Natural gas surges amid warm weather forecasts

Natural gas rose on Tuesday more than 1.5% as weather forecasting models suggested warmer than normal temperatures over the next 5 days across the western parts of the U.S.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas for August delivery traded at $3.644 per million British thermal units at 14:25 GMT, 1.86% higher on the day. Prices varied between days high and low at $3.653 and $3.568 per mBtu respectively. The fuel marked a 0.36% gain on Monday after settling 6.07% lower last week.

Warmer than normal weather is expected in the western parts of the U.S. during the next five days, which shot natural gas prices up. Gas prices tend to rise during the summer season as increased electricity demand to power air-conditioning calls for more supply of the fuel, which is used for a quarter of the U.S. electricity generation. The fuel was pressured recently by the stronger dollar, which pushed dollar-priced commodities down. Lower demand amid seasonal and below-seasonal temperatures in the eastern parts of the country also pressured gas prices, which are now 18% below May 1s peak of $4.439 per mBtu.

The EIA reported a rise in the Natural Gas Storage indicator in six of the last eight weeks. In its weekly natural gas inventories report last Thursday, the Energy Information Administration said the working gas in underground storage totaled 2.533 billion cubic feet as of June 21. This was 17.1% lower than the comparable week last year when natural gas stockpiles stood at 3 055 billion cubic feet and marked a 58 billion gain. The five-year average inventories stand 1.2% higher at 2 564 billion and the average gain equaled 79 billion. The Natural Gas Storage Indicator rose by 95 billion cubic feet last week, up from 91 billion during the preceding period and above expectations of an 88 billion gain.

Investors are now looking ahead into this weeks EIA natural gas report, due on Wednesday. Preliminary injection estimates are in range between 51 billion cubic feet to 75 billion, compared to 41 billion cubic feet during the same week last year. The five-year average figure stands at 71 billion cubic feet.