Solana Weakens as ETF Outflows and Derivatives Signal Risk

Key Moments

Spot Price Slump Extends as Structural Weakness Builds

Solana (SOL) traded below $90 on Monday, attempting a modest recovery after dropping more than 3% the previous day and slipping under a long-term support trendline. The token has been grinding lower for five consecutive weeks, mirroring a similar streak of weekly outflows from Solana-focused Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) that now exceed $150 million.

Retail participation has also weakened. Ongoing position reductions have pushed futures Open Interest to a two-month low, while a negative funding rate underscores prevailing sell-side dominance. In this environment, technical indicators point to continued downside risk for SOL, with a potential slide toward $77 if selling pressure persists.

ETF Redemptions and Derivatives Data Highlight Bearish Bias

Several on-chain and market structure indicators currently point to further vulnerability in Solana. ETF flows have been a significant headwind. Data from SoSoValue shows that Solana ETFs have recorded nearly $170 million in outflows over the past five weeks. This includes $26.25 million in redemptions last week and a peak weekly outflow of $71.47 million in the prior month. These sustained withdrawals indicate diminishing institutional appetite for Solana against a backdrop of broader market uncertainty.

On the derivatives side, figures from CoinGlass indicate that SOL futures Open Interest has fallen to $5.10 billion on Monday, its lowest reading since August 19. This comes after a steady decline from the October 8 peak of $7.62 billion. The contraction in positioning has moved in step with the spot price retreat and ETF redemptions, suggesting that ETF outflows are a major driver of the ongoing correction. For market participants watching for a reversal, a shift to weekly ETF inflows could serve as an early signal of improving sentiment.

At the same time, the funding rate at -0.0033% points to a near-term bias toward short positions, as traders are effectively paying a premium to stay short. Liquidation data reinforces this bearish tilt: long positions worth $33.64 million were liquidated on Sunday, significantly exceeding short liquidations of $1.35 million and highlighting stronger downward pressure.

SOL ETFs data. Source: Sosovalue

SOL derivatives data. Source: CoinGlass

Technical Picture: Critical Support Levels in Focus

At press time on Monday, Solana traded at $87.60, extending a downtrend that has been in place since early October. SOL declined 8% last week, adding to a 19% drop in October, and slipped below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $99.26. The move also took price beneath a long-term ascending trendline drawn from the June 6 and August 1 lows, around $90.41.

The shorter-term 50-day EMA, now declining at $100.35, is moving toward a potential cross below the 200-day EMA. This configuration, often referred to as a death cross, would reinforce a bearish trend reversal if confirmed.

Momentum indicators remain weak. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near oversold territory at 29, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in negative territory. Together, these gauges suggest that downside pressure has not yet fully played out, despite already stretched conditions.

Key Support and Resistance Zones

On the downside, immediate support lies just under the current market price at the $87.46 horizontal level. Below that, a more substantial demand zone emerges around $77.60. A sustained break under this area would open the way toward deeper support levels at $67.50 and $60.13, where the broader uptrend base from previous months converges.

On the upside, initial resistance is located near the previously broken trendline around $90.41. Above that, a horizontal barrier appears at $95.82, which would need to be cleared to ease the prevailing bearish pressure.