Key Moments
- NBP Governor Adam Glapinski adopted a hawkish tone but effectively pointed to no rate move before at least Q1, excluding a December hike.
- Fresh NBP projections show inflation remaining above target into 2027, even assuming continued tax relief on fuels.
- Commerzbank’s Tatha Ghose views reliance on temporary fuel-price measures as keeping policy too loose and negative for the Zloty.
Policy Rhetoric vs. Action
Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank notes that National Bank of Poland (NBP) Governor Adam Glapinski struck a hawkish note at the central bank’s latest post-meeting press conference, but in practice signaled continued inaction. According to Ghose, Glapinski effectively indicated that no rate increase is on the table until at least the first quarter, explicitly taking a December move off the agenda.
“Poland’s National Bank (NBP) held its monthly post-meeting press conference yesterday, at which governor Adam Glapinski portrayed the MPC as hawkish, but his practical signal was still one of inaction. He acknowledged a “heated” discussion and said that MPC feared it might have to hike rates, but effectively ruled out December because it is traditionally a “holiday” meeting. This leaves Q1 as the earliest plausible timing for tightening.”
Inflation Projections Challenge the Pause
Ghose highlights that the NBP’s new projections raise questions about delaying further tightening. The analysis stresses that inflation is projected to remain above the central bank’s target into 2027 under different tax-policy scenarios.
“The new projections undermine the rationale for waiting. If the government were not to extend fuel tax cuts into 2027, CPI inflation would jump to nearly 5%y/y during Q1 and Q2. But, even if the tax relief were to be extended, inflation is still projected to exceed 3.5%y/y during H1 2027 – faster than the upper limit of NBP’s target range. Higher commodity and food prices, elevated PPI inflation and the growing risk of second-round effects reinforce this message.”
| Scenario | Period | Projected CPI Inflation | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| No extension of fuel tax cuts | Q1 – Q2 2027 | Nearly 5% y/y | Well above NBP target range |
| Fuel tax relief extended | H1 2027 | Above 3.5% y/y | Still faster than upper limit of target range |
Temporary Factors vs. Underlying Inflation
At the press conference, Glapinski pointed to softer economic momentum, slower wage gains, and October inflation returning to target as justification for holding rates in November. Ghose argues that this narrative underplays the role of one-off administrative interventions in shaping the recent inflation print.
“Glapinski cited softer growth, slower wage increases and October inflation returning to target as reasons for the November hold. But, October’s apparent disinflation resulted from temporary administrative fuel-price intervention, not a genuine moderation in underlying inflation. Monetary policy should not remain hostage to government decisions on fuel taxes, power tariffs and protective measures.”
Implications for the Polish Zloty
Ghose warns that the current stance – keeping policy unchanged in the face of projection-consistent inflation risks and relying on temporary fuel-price measures – is undermining the Polish currency.
“The zloty is already tanking. Maintaining the monetary policy status quo because of an administered-price-driven dip in inflation will ultimately augur badly for the currency.”
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