Key Moments
- EUR/CHF traded broadly unchanged around 0.9170 during European hours on Thursday after paring earlier losses.
- Stronger German factory orders and hawkish European Central Bank commentary supported the Euro’s appeal.
- Unexpectedly higher Swiss inflation at 1.5% year-on-year in October reinforced expectations of a more hawkish SNB, limiting EUR/CHF upside.
Euro Supported by Softer Oil and German Manufacturing Data
EUR/CHF traded close to flat near 0.9170 in European dealings on Thursday, with the pair steady after recovering its intraday declines. The Euro found some support as falling crude oil prices eased pressure from energy costs. The drop in oil prices followed a Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections, which increased expectations that the Trump administration could come under greater pressure to move toward resolving the conflict with Iran. President Donald Trump acknowledged that Republican losses were largely tied to the war and higher gasoline prices, while also signaling no immediate intention to escalate military strikes.
Euro sentiment was further underpinned by stronger economic figures out of Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy. Germany’s Factory Orders rose by 3.3% year-over-year in September, an improvement from the revised 3.2% increase recorded previously. On a month-over-month basis, orders for German-manufactured goods rebounded by 4.4% after a sharp 10.1% decline in August, although this recovery remained slightly below the forecasted 4.8% increase.
ECB Hawkish Tone Adds to Euro Tailwinds
In addition to the macro data, the Euro benefited from firm policy rhetoric out of the European Central Bank. Officials signaled that further rate increases may be necessary to rein in inflation and prevent a wage-price spiral from taking hold. This hawkish tone contributed to expectations that the ECB could maintain a tighter policy stance, supporting the common currency’s outlook against several peers, including the Swiss Franc.
Swiss Inflation Surprise Lifts CHF and Caps EUR/CHF Upside
Despite supportive Euro factors, EUR/CHF faced headwinds from renewed Swiss Franc strength. Swiss inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 1.5% year-on-year in October, challenging the notion that the Swiss National Bank can refrain from tightening monetary policy through 2027.
The prospect of a more restrictive SNB stance has revived investor interest in the Franc and weighed on EUR/CHF. Analysts at ING characterized a more hawkish SNB bias as “quite a clean positive for the Swiss franc,” noting that “traders will remember 2023, when the SNB actively drove the franc stronger and sold FX as part of its tightening toolkit.” In that context, they stated that they “expect to see even more interest in the Swiss franc over the coming months, with downside risks to EUR/CHF forecasts.”
Euro’s Performance Against Major Currencies
The following table presents the percentage change of the Euro (EUR) against major currencies today, as well as the moves among those currencies themselves. According to the data, the Euro showed its strongest performance against the British Pound.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.10% | 0.00% | -0.13% | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.29% | -0.11% | |
| EUR | 0.10% | 0.11% | -0.05% | 0.03% | 0.03% | -0.18% | -0.02% | |
| GBP | -0.01% | -0.11% | -0.17% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.29% | -0.12% | |
| JPY | 0.13% | 0.05% | 0.17% | 0.06% | 0.07% | -0.18% | 0.01% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.03% | 0.08% | -0.06% | 0.01% | -0.22% | -0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.06% | -0.03% | 0.07% | -0.07% | -0.01% | -0.21% | -0.05% | |
| NZD | 0.29% | 0.18% | 0.29% | 0.18% | 0.22% | 0.21% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.12% | -0.01% | 0.05% | 0.05% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the quote currency is selected from the top row. For instance, choosing the Euro from the left column and moving horizontally to the US Dollar cell provides the percentage move for EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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