Key Moments
- EUR/GBP touched a 19-month low at 0.8336 and has been heading toward a 3.15% decline over a five-week downtrend.
- Eurozone Q3 GDP grew 0.4%, outpacing the 0.2% consensus, but unemployment rose to 6.5% and Oil stayed above $112.00.
- Markets have been almost fully pricing in a 25-basis-point Bank of England rate increase at next week’s meeting.
Euro Under Pressure Despite Stronger Eurozone Growth
The Euro (EUR) has continued to weaken against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, as recent Eurozone data has not been strong enough to restore confidence among investors. At the same time, the Pound has been broadly supported with traders positioning for a possible interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) next week.
The EUR/GBP cross extended its slide to a fresh 19-month low at 0.8336 and has been on course for a 3.15% loss over a five-week bearish stretch.
Preliminary estimates from Eurostat showed that the Eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.4% in the third quarter. This was slower than the 0.6% pace recorded in the prior quarter, but still double the 0.2% increase that had been forecast. Earlier, German GDP data had also exceeded expectations, while French output contracted in contrast to projections of modest growth.
The constructive growth figures have been overshadowed by labor market data, as the Eurozone Unemployment Rate unexpectedly ticked up to 6.5% in September, compared with market expectations of 6.4%.
Adding to headwinds for the single currency, Oil prices have remained close to five-month highs. Brent Crude has been holding above $112.00 per barrel, raising concerns about the outlook for regional growth and intensifying inflation-related risks.
Pound Supported as Markets Look Ahead to BoE Meeting
In the United Kingdom, attention has shifted toward the upcoming BoE policy decision scheduled for next week. Recent data pointed to ongoing economic expansion in the UK, while inflation has stayed well above the central bank’s target. Given this backdrop, futures pricing has indicated that markets are nearly fully anticipating a 25-basis-points rate increase at the meeting.
Technical Picture: EUR/GBP Nears Oversold Territory
EUR/GBP was trading at 0.8343 at the time of writing, extending its descent within a downward parallel channel and maintaining a bearish short-term structure. Technical studies on the 4-hour chart have continued to favor further downside, with momentum indicators aligned with the negative bias. However, the Relative Strength Index (14) has been hovering near 32, edging toward oversold conditions and hinting that selling pressure could pause.
On the downside, a sustained move below Thursday’s low at 0.8345 would open the door to a test of the late March 2025 lows, located between 0.8315 and 0.8330, ahead of the channel floor, which currently comes in around 0.8300.
On the upside, the upper boundary of the descending channel near 0.8360 is expected to act as initial resistance to any recovery attempts. Above that, further hurdles are seen at Wednesday’s high around 0.8385 and at the weekly peak, situated just above 0.8400.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling Performance Against Major Currencies
The following table shows the percentage change of the British Pound (GBP) against a selection of major currencies today. According to these figures, the Pound has been strongest relative to the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | — | -0.20% | -0.40% | -0.46% | -0.27% | -0.13% | -0.29% | -0.39% |
| EUR | 0.20% | — | -0.20% | -0.18% | -0.03% | 0.08% | -0.10% | -0.20% |
| GBP | 0.40% | 0.20% | — | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.28% | 0.10% | -0.00% |
| JPY | 0.46% | 0.18% | -0.02% | — | 0.13% | 0.26% | 0.09% | -0.01% |
| CAD | 0.27% | 0.03% | -0.13% | -0.13% | — | 0.13% | -0.03% | -0.13% |
| AUD | 0.13% | -0.08% | -0.28% | -0.26% | -0.13% | — | -0.17% | -0.26% |
| NZD | 0.29% | 0.10% | -0.10% | -0.09% | 0.03% | 0.17% | — | -0.09% |
| CHF | 0.39% | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.13% | 0.26% | 0.09% | — |
The heat map above displays percentage moves between major currencies. The base currency is selected from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, choosing the British Pound on the left and moving horizontally to the US Dollar cell shows the percentage change for GBP (base)/USD (quote).
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