EUR/CAD Steadies as Traders Await BoC Call and ECB Pause

Written by Brian McColl

Brian McColl

Brian McColl is a fundamental and technical analysis expert and mentor. Brian has been a part of the Forex and stock markets for more than ten years as a freelancing trader.

, | Updated: October 28, 2026

Key Moments

EUR/CAD Stabilizes After Prolonged Slide

EUR/CAD was modestly higher during European trading on Wednesday, hovering around 1.5640 after six straight sessions of losses. Price action was muted as participants waited for the Bank of Canada’s policy announcement later in the day, with financial markets largely anticipating a 25-basis-point increase in the benchmark interest rate.

Despite the slight rebound, the cross remains vulnerable to renewed downside if the Canadian Dollar continues to draw strength from both monetary policy expectations and commodity dynamics.

Canadian Dollar Backed by Oil and Geopolitical Focus

The Canadian Dollar, which is closely tied to commodity performance, has been buoyed by firmer crude oil prices. The move in energy markets followed heightened global focus on Israel’s election outcome, which has potential implications for the trajectory of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Exit polls pointed to a tightly contested result between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot, with neither side securing an outright majority. While the stalemate persisted, the polling suggested eroding backing for Netanyahu, who has overseen nearly three years of uninterrupted conflict. The broader geopolitical uncertainty has added a supportive backdrop for oil and, by extension, for the CAD.

Euro Pressured Ahead of ECB as Month-to-Date Laggard

Attention will quickly shift toward the European Central Bank’s policy meeting on Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to keep its key interest rates unchanged after implementing a 25-basis-point hike in September.

Against this backdrop, further weakness in EUR/CAD remains a risk. The Euro has been on track to rank as the weakest among developed-market currencies for the month, weighed down by elevated energy costs, continued volatility in French government bonds, and persistent worries over France’s fiscal outlook. These factors are seen as maintaining downward pressure on the shared currency in the near term.

German Consumer Confidence Hits Lowest Level Since May

Fresh survey data underscored the fragile state of household sentiment in the Eurozone’s largest economy. Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate Indicator slipped to -30.8 heading into November, from -30.6 in October. The reading was slightly more favorable than the consensus forecast of -31.0, yet it marked the weakest level since May and remained well below the -24.1 recorded a year earlier.

Lingering concerns over personal finances and elevated inflation are continuing to restrain spending plans, offsetting modest improvements in broader economic sentiment and limiting the scope for a stronger domestic demand recovery.

GfK Consumer Confidence – Latest Release Detail

The GfK Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).