Copper Tests Key Levels as Overbought Signals Emerge

Key Moments

Scenario Playbook Overview

As of the latest update on Oct 28, 2026, at 07:10 AM UTC, copper prices are navigating a technically sensitive zone, with the market oscillating between a potential continuation of the V-bottom recovery and the risk of a bull trap near resistance. The analysis outlines both bullish and bearish tactical setups, including preferred entry areas, stop levels, targets, and key technical signals to monitor.

Bullish Strategy: Buying the Pullback

The bullish roadmap focuses on capitalizing on a corrective move following extreme overbought conditions, with the Money Flow Index (MFI) noted above 94. The core risk for bullish participants is that these stretched conditions could trigger a sharp setback before any renewed uptrend.

Two long entry styles are defined:

• Aggressive entry at USD 6.63, aligned with a retracement to the SMA(200) and the 50% Fibonacci level.
• Conservative entry at USD 6.56, targeting a deeper retracement toward the SMA(50) and the 38.2% Fibonacci level.

The protective stop for the long scenario is positioned at USD 6.48, described as being below SuperTrend support. Profit-taking levels are structured in three stages:

• Target 1: USD 6.70, with a risk-reward profile of 1.75, coinciding with 61.8% Fibonacci resistance.
• Target 2: USD 6.83, with a risk-reward profile of 3.37, identified as a previous swing high.
• Target 3: USD 6.92, with a risk-reward profile of 4.50, framed as an all-time high test.

Confidence in the bullish setup is labeled as medium (“M”). Position management guidelines specify moving the stop to breakeven upon reaching Target 1, then trailing the stop using the SMA(20) after Target 2. If stopped out, the plan calls for reentry at USD 6.40. On the monitoring side, the bullish case emphasizes the MFI easing back from overbought readings while the MACD maintains a constructive configuration.

Bearish Strategy: Fading Overbought Strength

The bearish playbook focuses on the risk that bullish momentum could ignore the overbought warnings and break through the 61.8% Fibonacci barrier. Short-side traders are instructed to wait for signs of momentum exhaustion or a failure to hold above key moving averages.

For short positions, two entry tactics are outlined:

• Aggressive entry at USD 6.70, triggered by a bearish reversal candlestick at the 61.8% Fibonacci level.
• Conservative entry at USD 6.60, contingent upon a 5-hour close back below the SMA(200).

The suggested stop for the bearish view is at USD 6.78, described as entry plus 1.5 times average true range (ATR). The downside is segmented into three targets:

• Target 1: USD 6.52, with a risk-reward profile of 2.25, aligning with SMA(20) support.
• Target 2: USD 6.43, with a risk-reward profile of 3.37, corresponding to a recent swing low cluster.
• Target 3: USD 6.34, with a risk-reward profile of 4.50, labeled as an all-time low test.

Bearish conviction is also rated as medium (“M”). Management rules for short positions include moving the stop to breakeven once Target 1 is reached, then trailing the stop using the SuperTrend after Target 2. If stopped out, the framework suggests reentry at USD 6.85. For validation, the bearish plan calls for evidence of price rejection at USD 6.70 and signs of the MACD histogram turning lower.

Bullish vs. Bearish Parameters at a Glance