WTI Crude Pulls Back; Technicals Still Favor Upside

Key Moments

WTI Gives Back Part of Asian Session Gains

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark price for US crude, is easing after touching an over two-week peak in the mid-$94.00s during Wednesday’s Asian session. The move lower interrupts a four-day advance, yet the pullback has been contained so far, with prices recently changing hands in the $93.75-$93.70 band, a decline of less than 0.20% on the day.

The market is weighing expectations that a US-Russia diesel agreement could unlock additional product supplies and help restrain crude prices. At the same time, mounting geopolitical risks are preventing a deeper correction, leaving the downside relatively limited for now.

Geopolitics Help Underpin the Market

Escalating frictions between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen continue to lend support to crude benchmarks. In addition, the ongoing US-Iran confrontation around the Strait of Hormuz is sustaining a geopolitical risk premium, providing a tailwind for WTI even as some supply concerns ease.

Technical Picture: Bullish Bias Intact

From a chart perspective, WTI maintains a constructive short-term structure. Prices are awaiting a clear and sustained break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the September-October decline to confirm continuation of the uptrend that has been in place for about a week.

Momentum gauges are backing the bullish narrative. The 14-period Relative Strength Index is hovering near 64, reflecting solid buying interest without yet signaling overbought conditions.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is also in positive territory with a mildly positive reading, pointing to an ongoing upward bias rather than exhaustion.

Key Technical Levels

A move through the 50% retracement level at $94.24 would open the door to higher Fibonacci targets, with the 61.8% retracement at $96.13 and the 78.6% level at $98.83 coming into view. A successful push through these resistance areas could pave the way for a test of the cycle high near $102.26.

On the downside, initial support is identified around the 38.2% retracement at $92.35. Below that, secondary buying interest is anticipated near the 23.6% retracement at $90.01. The broader positive technical framework would likely come under more serious pressure only if WTI were to retreat toward the $86.22 area, which is seen as a key reference point for the prevailing bullish structure.