EUR/JPY Tests Resistance; Downtrend Channel Intact

Key Moments

EUR/JPY trades near 177.40 in Asian hours, marking a third straight session of gains while staying within a descending channel.
Key support emerges around 176.10 at the lower boundary of the channel, with the 14-day RSI near 36 signaling persistent bearish tone.
The nine-day EMA at 177.66 and the 50-day EMA at 180.63 form the first major upside hurdles for any sustained recovery.

EUR/JPY Holds Modest Gains but Bias Stays Bearish

EUR/JPY extends its advance for a third consecutive session, trading close to 177.40 during Asian hours on Monday. Market liquidity is described as thin, although conditions are viewed as favorable for potential “Yentervention”.

On the daily timeframe, price action continues to unfold within a descending channel, pointing to a prevailing downside bias despite the recent bounce.

Technical Structure: Channel Support and Moving Average Resistance

The cross maintains a bearish near-term setup as it remains capped beneath both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA stands just above spot, reinforcing the idea of nearby overhead supply rather than a clear bullish break.

Momentum indicators back this tone, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index hovering around 36, indicating subdued upside strength following the latest pullback.

Downside Levels: Channel Floor and Multi-Month Lows

On the downside, the first key level is the lower edge of the descending channel, located around 176.10. A clear move below this area would turn attention to the 11-month low at 175.70, which was recorded in November 2025. Failure to hold this confluence zone could open the door to deeper losses toward the 14-month low at 169.72.

Upside Scenario: EMAs as Gatekeepers to Higher Targets

For buyers, initial resistance is seen at the nine-day EMA, currently at 177.66. Above that, the 50-day EMA at 180.63 represents the next significant barrier. A decisive break above both moving averages would be needed to shift momentum in favor of the bulls and allow the cross to challenge the upper band of the descending channel, near 184.00. From there, the all-time high at 187.95, set on April 17, would stand as the longer-term upside objective.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Investors and French Bond Market Movements

Analysts at Commerzbank point out that Japanese investors have been net sellers of long-term French bonds over the past year. They note that “cumulative net purchases since early 2014 have declined noticeably since the pandemic.” At the same time, they emphasize that these investors “have already returned as buyers over the past three months,” prompting Commerzbank to judge that “it therefore appears unlikely that Japanese investors were responsible for, or even materially contributed to, the recent dislocations in the French bond market.”

Euro Performance Against Major Currencies

The table below shows the percentage change of the Euro (EUR) relative to other major currencies today. According to the data, the Euro has been strongest versus the New Zealand Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.08%	-0.09%	-0.05%	0.00%	0.02%	0.07%	-0.02%
EUR	0.08%		-0.03%	0.00%	0.09%	0.09%	0.20%	0.05%
GBP	0.09%	0.03%		0.06%	0.09%	0.10%	0.23%	0.07%
JPY	0.05%	0.00%	-0.06%		0.03%	0.05%	0.15%	0.01%
CAD	-0.01%	-0.09%	-0.09%	-0.03%		0.02%	0.07%	-0.03%
AUD	-0.02%	-0.09%	-0.10%	-0.05%	-0.02%		0.12%	-0.05%
NZD	-0.07%	-0.20%	-0.23%	-0.15%	-0.07%	-0.12%		-0.15%
CHF	0.02%	-0.05%	-0.07%	-0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.15%

The heat map reflects percentage changes between major currencies. The base currency is taken from the left-hand column, while the quote currency is taken from the top row. For instance, selecting the Euro from the left column and moving horizontally to the US Dollar cell gives the performance of EUR (base)/USD (quote).