Key Moments
- Middle East crude exports surpassed pre-war averages on four of the last seven days of September, according to Kpler data.
- Shipments on September 24 and from September 27 to 29 ranged between 19.5 million bpd and 22.5 million bpd.
- WTI traded 1.23% lower at $89.25 at the time of writing, despite heightened geopolitical risk and tanker attacks.
Exports Outpace Pre-war Levels Despite Security Threats
Crude oil shipments from the Middle East moved above pre-war levels for most of the final week of September, even as attacks on tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz intensified, according to provisional figures from ship-tracking provider Kpler.
Kpler’s data shows that crude exports from the region on September 24, and again from September 27 through September 29, were in a range between 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 22.5 million bpd. By comparison, exports had averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February this year, prior to the start of the US-Iran war.
Export Levels vs Pre-war Average
| Period / Date | Crude exports (bpd) | Context |
|---|---|---|
| March 2025 – February (pre-war) | 18 million | Average exports before US-Iran war |
| September 24 | 19.5 – 22.5 million | Exceeded pre-war average |
| September 27 – 29 | 19.5 – 22.5 million | Exceeded pre-war average |
Market Reaction and WTI Price Action
Despite the combination of higher exports and ongoing attacks on tankers in a key transit chokepoint, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was weaker at the time of writing. WTI was down 1.23% on the day, trading at $89.25.
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