Key Moments
- XRP trades below $1.500 and is down 1.72% so far this week, signaling ongoing selling pressure.
- XLM changes hands around $0.227 as its rebound continues, but upside progress has met resistance.
- US Treasury yields near 19-year highs and mixed derivatives metrics have constrained risk appetite for both tokens.
Macro Headwinds Hit Ripple and Stellar
Ripple (XRP) remains under pressure, slipping below $1.500 on Thursday, while Stellar (XLM) continues to recover but is encountering resistance around $0.227 amid a cautious market mood. Rising US Treasury yields and mixed derivatives signals are dampening demand for risk assets, keeping traders wary on both XRP and XLM.
Soaring US Yields Pressure Risk Assets
Crypto markets are contending with the same headwind that is weighing on broader risk assets: a sharp climb in US Treasury yields. The 5-year yield has moved above 5%, and the 10-year yield is trading above 5.2%, with both sitting at 19-year highs. These elevated yields are drawing capital toward traditional fixed-income instruments and away from higher-risk segments, limiting upside potential for Ripple and Stellar and making it harder for bulls to extend advances in XRP and XLM.
Derivatives Signals Show Split Market Positioning
Derivatives indicators reflect a cautious and mixed stance among traders. According to CoinGlass, long-to-short ratios for Ripple and Stellar stand at 0.85 and 0.68 on Thursday, respectively, approaching their lowest readings in over a month. Ratios below one point to a bearish tilt, indicating that more traders are positioned for price declines than gains.
At the same time, funding dynamics are sending a different message. The XRP funding rate turned positive on September 24 and is at 0.0040% on Thursday. For XLM, the funding rate shifted positive on September 14 and is currently at 0.0100%. Positive funding rates show that long positions are paying shorts, typically associated with a more optimistic bias in perpetual futures markets.
| Metric | XRP | XLM |
|---|---|---|
| Spot price (Thursday) | $1.489 | $0.227 |
| Weekly performance | -1.72% | Modest gains previous day |
| Long-to-short ratio (CoinGlass, Thursday) | 0.85 | 0.68 |
| Funding rate (Thursday) | 0.0040% | 0.0100% |
XRP Technical Outlook: Pullback Within a Broader Uptrend
XRP is trading at $1.489 on Thursday, extending a modest correction for the week. Despite the latest pullback, the broader structure remains constructive, with price holding clearly above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which are clustered between roughly $1.376 and $1.314. These EMAs are underpinning the prevailing uptrend and providing a layered support area beneath spot levels.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, comfortably above the neutral 50 threshold, indicating ongoing but not overstretched buying interest. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has slipped marginally below zero, implying that bullish momentum is cooling after the recent advance rather than delivering a decisive downside shift.
On the resistance side, the first key barrier sits near $1.671, with a more substantial ceiling around $1.900, where additional selling interest may emerge if buyers attempt to push higher.
Support is initially reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $1.376 and the 200-day EMA at $1.371. Further below, the 100-day EMA at $1.314 and a horizontal area around $1.300 define a deeper demand zone. A sustained move beneath that region would open the way toward the next major structural base near $1.000.
XLM Technical Outlook: Rebound Meets Overhead Barriers
XLM is quoted at $0.227 on Thursday after a modest rebound in the prior session. The token is maintaining a constructive bullish tone as it trades above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs, which sit between approximately $0.188 and $0.195. Regaining and holding above these medium- and long-term EMAs, together with an RSI around 63 and a positive MACD reading, points to buyers retaining control as upside momentum builds.
On the downside, initial support aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.219. Below that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.200 and the EMA cluster in the $0.195-$0.191 band create a broader demand zone before lower horizontal supports appear at $0.177 and $0.142.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $0.237. Further barriers are seen at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.261 and a descending trendline resistance around $0.260. This confluence of technical levels could cap near-term gains unless buying pressure is strong enough to force a clean breakout.
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