Key Moments
- USD/IDR trades around 17,820 during Asian hours on Wednesday, extending losses for a second straight session while staying inside an ascending channel.
- The pair remains above the nine- and 50-day EMAs at 17,800 and 17,804, with a 14-day RSI of 54.08 and an FXS Fed Sentiment Index reading of 148.39 supporting a mildly bullish tone.
- Analysts at OCBC point to Indonesia’s restrained fiscal deficit of 0.93% of GDP for January-August and plans to maintain at least IDR200tn in state-owned banks until July 2027.
Technical Setup: Bullish Channel Intact
USD/IDR extends its decline for a second consecutive session, changing hands near 17,820 during Asian trading on Wednesday. Despite the pullback, daily chart analysis indicates the pair is still moving within an ascending channel, signaling that the broader bullish structure remains in place ahead of the Bank Indonesia (BI) interest rate decision later in the day.
The spot rate continues to trade above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reinforcing a mildly constructive near-term outlook. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 54.08, pointing to positive momentum without entering overbought territory. At the same time, the elevated FXS Fed Sentiment Index at 148.39 indicates that external US dollar-supportive factors are still providing a supportive backdrop for the pair.
Upside and Downside Levels to Watch
From a technical perspective, USD/IDR has scope to resume its advance if buying interest reemerges. The pair may attempt to revisit the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 18,060. A move through that zone could open the way toward the all-time peak of 18,247, which was hit on June 8.
On the downside, immediate support is clustered around the 50-day and nine-day EMAs at 17,804 and 17,800, respectively, an area that also aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A clear break below this confluence and a departure from the channel would shift the technical tone, exposing downside risk toward the region surrounding the four-month low of 17,476, recorded on September 9.
| Level / Indicator | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Current price (Asian hours, Wednesday) | 17,820 | Second straight day of losses |
| Nine-day EMA | 17,800 | Immediate dynamic support |
| 50-day EMA | 17,804 | Key support near channel floor |
| Upper boundary of ascending channel | 18,060 | Next potential resistance zone |
| All-time high (June 8) | 18,247 | Major upside target |
| Four-month low (September 9) | 17,476 | Key downside reference if channel breaks |
| 14-day RSI | 54.08 | Positive but not overbought |
| FXS Fed Sentiment Index | 148.39 | Signals ongoing dollar-supportive backdrop |
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