Key Moments
- Silver trades in a tight range just above $64.00 as the week begins, with traders cautious ahead of major central bank decisions.
- XAG/USD remains capped below the 4-hour 200-period SMA at $64.91 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $64.78, preserving a bearish technical bias.
- Initial downside support is seen at the 50% retracement near $62.86, followed by $60.94, $58.21, and $54.74 on further weakness.
Rangebound Trade as Central Bank Meetings Loom
Silver (XAG/USD) starts the new week on the back foot, trading without clear direction in a narrow band just above the $64.00 level during the Asian session. Market participants appear reluctant to commit to strong positions as they await a series of major central bank policy announcements.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is due to publish its rate decision on Wednesday, followed by a Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday and a Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy update on Friday. Investors are looking to these events for fresh guidance on the future policy trajectory, which is expected to be a key driver for the non-yielding XAG/USD pair.
Technical Picture Favors Further Downside
From a technical standpoint, the metal is trading below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart at $64.91 and beneath the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $64.78. This confluence is currently limiting recovery attempts and reinforces a bearish near-term outlook. A sustained break and consolidation above the 4-hour 200-SMA would be required to challenge this negative bias.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below the zero line, with the latest reading slightly negative. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 42, indicating fading upside momentum after the latest pullback and underscoring the market’s difficulty in regaining bullish traction.
In this context, any substantial attempt to push higher is expected to face immediate resistance at the 38.2% retracement level at $64.78, closely followed by the 200-period SMA at $64.91.
Key Levels to Watch
If buyers manage to overcome the initial resistance band, the next notable objective comes into view near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $67.15, with further upside potential toward the cycle high region around $70.99.
On the downside, the first significant support is located at the 50% retracement near $62.86. Below that, additional Fibonacci support emerges at the 61.8% retracement at $60.94, with more substantial downside levels seen at $58.21 and $54.74.
| Technical Level | Type | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Cycle high region | Resistance | $70.99 |
| 23.6% Fibonacci retracement | Resistance | $67.15 |
| 200-period SMA (H4) | Resistance | $64.91 |
| 38.2% Fibonacci retracement | Resistance | $64.78 |
| 50% Fibonacci retracement | Support | $62.86 |
| 61.8% Fibonacci retracement | Support | $60.94 |
| Structural support | Support | $58.21 |
| Structural support | Support | $54.74 |
The overall setup indicates that the path of least resistance for XAG/USD currently points lower, with sellers retaining the advantage while prices remain capped beneath the $64.78-$64.91 resistance band.
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