Key Moments
- ICE Brent briefly traded above US$90/bbl in early Asian hours after US strikes on Iranian targets raised fresh concerns over Persian Gulf supply routes.
- ING estimates that about 5m b/d of crude transit the Strait of Hormuz on average, with reported flows in a 6-8m b/d range, leaving volumes vulnerable to any further escalation.
- Russia extended its diesel export ban by one month to the end of September 2026, intensifying existing supply tightness in the global diesel market.
Geopolitical Tensions Lend Support to Brent
Oil prices began the week on a firmer footing, with ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey pointing to a combination of renewed geopolitical risk and product market constraints as key drivers. ICE Brent futures briefly climbed back above US$90 per barrel during early trading in Asia after US military actions against Iran raised anxiety over crude flows from the Persian Gulf.
According to the analysts, the latest price strength followed “the first military strikes between the US and Iran in a month,” with the move reigniting concerns around the security of a critical maritime route for global energy shipments.
Strait of Hormuz Flows in Focus
The analysts emphasized that the market is closely watching developments around the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for seaborne crude exports from regional producers. They noted that the US targeted Iranian launchers over the weekend amid indications that Iran was preparing to deploy mines in the strait, a scenario that could threaten tanker traffic.
They wrote: “ICE Brent briefly moved back above US$90/bbl in early morning Asia trading. The US struck Iranian launchers over the weekend amid suggestions that Iran was about to launch mines into the Strait of Hormuz.”
The potential for further military escalation remains a critical variable for market sentiment. As they put it, “Obviously, the key is whether this ignites further rounds of strikes from both sides, and whether it leaves shippers hesitant to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.”
Producers in the region have recently shown more willingness to continue routing crude through the strait despite the uncertain security backdrop. “Oil producers in the region have grown more comfortable shuttling crude through the key chokepoint in recent weeks. Reports have 6-8m b/d transiting the strait, although we assume an average of 5m b/d. Further escalation could put these flows under renewed pressure.”
| Key Factor | Detail |
|---|---|
| ICE Brent price action | Briefly moved back above US$90/bbl in early morning Asia trading |
| Reported Strait of Hormuz flows | 6-8m b/d, with ING assuming an average of 5m b/d |
| Recent geopolitical trigger | US strikes on Iranian launchers amid suggestions of planned mine deployment |
Russian Diesel Ban Extends Product Market Tightness
Beyond crude logistics, refined product supply is facing additional strain after Russia prolonged its restrictions on diesel exports. The ING analysts flagged this as another pillar of support for the broader oil complex.
“Unsurprisingly, Russia announced over the weekend that it would extend its ban on diesel exports by another month until the end of September 2026. This move will only add to the supply stress facing the global diesel market amid disruptions from the Persian Gulf and Russia. The market is moving toward stronger demand.”
The extension of the diesel export ban, combined with uncertainty around crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, reinforces expectations of tighter balances in both crude and products, underpinning current price levels for Brent and the wider oil market.
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