Silver Holds Above $69 as Markets Eye US PCE & Fed Talk

Key Moments

Silver Gains as Oil Retreats and Hormuz Tensions Ease

Silver prices (XAG/USD) are trading close to $69.40 during the Asian session on Wednesday, advancing nearly 1%. The move higher in the precious metal comes as oil prices extend their decline amid optimism that shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key channel for almost one-fifth of global energy supply, could resume more smoothly.

The improved sentiment is tied to reports that Iran and Oman have restarted discussions on creating a “temporary joint maritime corridor” to facilitate safe transit through the waterway. That development has helped temper concerns over a protracted disruption in energy supplies.

On Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi held talks on an “interim framework” aimed at restarting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Reduced fears of a lasting energy shock would likely ease upward pressure on global inflation expectations and could lower the perceived need for additional interest rate hikes by major central banks. In such an environment, non-yielding assets such as silver tend to benefit.

US PCE Inflation and Jackson Hole in Focus

Market participants are now turning their attention to the United States Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) for July, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT. Core PCE inflation, closely followed by Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers, is projected to remain unchanged at 3.3% year-on-year, with the monthly reading expected to rise 0.2%, after a 0.1% increase in June.

Beyond the inflation data, the main event for global markets this week is the Jackson Hole Symposium, which begins early Thursday and is widely viewed as a critical forum for Fed communication.

TD Securities: Jackson Hole as the Week’s Main Macro Catalyst

According to TD Securities, “Friday’s Jackson Hole Symposium looms large,” with the gathering likely to be “this week’s main macro event in markets.” The firm expects investors to search for “an improved version of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh through his prepared remarks,” along with “some sort of firmer and more explicit commitment toward the inflation mandate.”

TD Securities also warns that “while Chair Warsh will seek to improve his communication with markets at Jackson Hole, forward guidance will still be lacking,” and that his appearance may “only rehash prior remarks that will likely focus on the big picture and regime change.” Within that context, the firm reiterates that “we expect the Fed to remain on hold over our forecast horizon.” With inflation “high for the rest of the year” and the labor market having “stabilized, allowing the FOMC to shift focus to its inflation mandate,” TD Securities contends that “if the Fed were to move this year, we believe that move is more likely to be a hike than a cut.”

Technical Picture: Bullish Bias Intact Above $65 Support

On the daily chart, XAG/USD is trading at $69.17, maintaining a firm stance above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.12. This positioning supports a constructive short-term outlook as the price continues to move away from dynamic trend support.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64.65, indicating positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory, which points to ongoing strength without clear signs of immediate fatigue.

On the downside, the area around the 20-day EMA at $65.12 represents initial technical support. Buyers are likely to defend this zone if prices experience a corrective pullback. On the upside, the June 17 peak at $71.56 is emerging as the next significant resistance level.