Key Moments
- LME copper climbed to a record $14,396/t, extending gains for a seventh straight week.
- Meanwhile, the LME copper cash/3M spread widened to $518.5/t in backwardation, pointing to tight near-term supply.
- At the same time, LME copper inventories fell for a 42nd straight session to 204,975 tonnes, their lowest level since February.
Record Prices Underscore Tight Physical Market
ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson say LME copper has broken above $14,000/t for the first time. The latest rise reflects growing signs of tightness in the physical market. In addition, constrained supply and falling exchange inventories have supported prices. Strong speculative buying has also added to the rally.
“LME copper rose 1.7% this morning to a record high of $14,396/t, extending its rally for a third session and marking a seventh consecutive week of gains. The cash/3M spread widened to a backwardation of $518.5/t, the strongest since October 2021, highlighting acute near-term supply tightness.”
Exchange Inventories and Regional Flows
Another key factor is the steady decline in visible LME stocks. As a result, lower inventories have added further support to copper prices.
“LME inventories fell for a 42nd consecutive session to 204,975 tonnes, their lowest level since February. Continued flows to the US and China, where prices trade at premiums to the LME, have drained stocks, while nearly half of remaining inventories are already earmarked for withdrawal.”
| Indicator | Latest Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| LME copper price | $14,396/t | Record high, up 1.7% this morning |
| Cash/3M spread | $518.5/t backwardation | Strongest since October 2021 |
| LME inventories | 204,975 tonnes | 42nd straight daily decline; lowest since February |
| Year-to-date copper performance | Up around 16% | Reflects ongoing multi-week rally |
| COMEX net long positioning | 80,880 lots | Highest since February 2021 |
Supply Outlook and Chilean Production
Supply concerns are also keeping the tone bullish. In particular, revised production forecasts from a major copper producer are adding to price support.
“On the supply side, Chile’s copper commission Cochilco expects national copper output to fall 2.6% year-on-year to 5.3mt in 2026, reflecting weaker production from Codelco and BHP operations. Copper is now up around 16% year-to-date.”
Speculative Positioning on COMEX
Investor positioning has also strengthened the rally. Money managers have increased their exposure to copper futures, adding further upward pressure.
“Speculative positioning remains supportive, with money managers increasing net long COMEX copper positions by 3,084 lots to 80,880 lots, the highest since February 2021.”
Overall, several factors are supporting copper’s multi-week rally. Record prices, strong backwardation, and falling inventories point to tight physical supply. Meanwhile, weaker production expectations and rising speculative positions are adding to the bullish outlook.
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