Key Moments
- WTI futures on NYMEX traded 0.5% higher around $82.10 during the European session on Thursday, supported by persistent supply concerns.
- Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to six vessels on August 10, compared with a recent 10-day average of about 11 and far below pre-war flows of 130 to 140 ships daily.
- OPEC cut its global oil demand growth forecast for the current year to 580,000 barrels per day from a previous estimate of 780,000 barrels per day.
Fundamentals: Supply Disruptions Support Prices
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures on NYMEX were trading 0.5% higher at around $82.10 during the European trading session on Thursday, with prices underpinned by worries over an extended period of energy supply disruption.
Concerns focus on the Strait of Hormuz, where both the United States (US) and Iran claim control over the key maritime passage. The strait is described as a critical chokepoint for one-fifth of global energy supply, and shipping activity there remains subdued.
Data from Kpler show that only six vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on August 10, compared with a recent 10-day average of about 11 vessels. Reuters reports that this volume marks a steep drop from pre-war traffic levels of 130 to 140 ships per day.
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that the US has “total control” over the Hormuz, describing the American naval presence as a “wall of steel”.
On the demand side, OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for the current year to 580,000 barrels per day (bpd), down from a prior projection of 780,000 bpd, signaling a more cautious outlook.
Technical Picture: WTI Holds Constructive Bias Above Key Averages
WTI US Oil is trading at $82.10 and maintains a constructive short-term tone while holding above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80.07. The contract has extended its rebound above the 20-day EMA following a correction that completed the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the move from the July 2 low at $67.09 to the July 23 high at $92.25.
The Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 52.55, positioned slightly above the neutral line. This suggests steady, rather than strong, bullish momentum as the price approaches nearby Fibonacci retracement levels on the upside.
Key Technical Levels
| Level Type | Price | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Spot price | $82.10 | Current WTI US Oil trade level |
| 20-day EMA | $80.07 | Immediate dynamic support |
| 38.2% Fibonacci retracement | $82.54 | Initial resistance on the topside |
| 23.6% Fibonacci retracement | $86.11 | Next resistance, potential area for profit-taking |
| 50.0% Fibonacci retracement | $79.65 | Stronger structural demand zone |
| Deeper Fibonacci support | $76.75 | Lower downside level if $79.65 breaks |
| Deeper Fibonacci support | $72.64 | Further downside objective below $76.75 |
| Major bearish target | $67.40 | Key low eyed if the current bullish structure fails decisively |
On the upside, the first notable resistance appears at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $82.54, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $86.11, where the advance could begin to encounter profit-taking.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA at $80.07. A more substantial demand zone is clustered near the 50.0% retracement at $79.65. A sustained break below that area would open the way toward deeper Fibonacci support levels at $76.75 and $72.64. The $67.40 low is viewed as a major bearish objective that would come into play only if the current bullish pattern is clearly invalidated.
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