Key Moments
- Silver (XAG/USD) trades in a narrow band around $65.40 during the Asian session, with traders awaiting U.S. PPI data.
- July U.S. headline CPI eased to 3.4% YoY and core CPI to 2.5% YoY, allowing markets to scale back expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes.
- XAG/USD remains above its 20-day EMA at $61.66, with RSI at 61.17, maintaining a constructive short-term bullish bias.
Macro Drivers: Softer CPI Tempers Fed Tightening Expectations
Silver prices are fluctuating in a tight range around $65.40 against the U.S. Dollar during the Asian trading session on Thursday, as market participants assess the latest U.S. inflation data and reposition ahead of upcoming producer price figures.
Data released on Wednesday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation slowed to 3.4% year-on-year from 3.5% in June. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy components, also moderated in line with projections to 2.5% year-on-year, down from 2.6% previously.
The cooling in both headline and core inflation has reduced concerns that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates again in the near term. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will leave rates unchanged at its September meeting has risen to nearly 60%, up from 30.4% one month earlier.
This pullback in expectations for further tightening is generally supportive for non-yielding assets such as Silver, which tend to benefit when the opportunity cost of holding them declines.
Focus Shifts to U.S. PPI Data
With the CPI release digested, market attention is turning to the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July. The data is scheduled for publication at 12:30 GMT and is expected to provide additional insight into upstream price pressures and the broader inflation trajectory.
Traders in XAG/USD are closely monitoring whether the PPI figures reinforce the narrative of cooling inflation or challenge expectations for a more patient Fed, which could in turn influence both the U.S. Dollar and precious metals pricing.
Technical Picture: Bullish Bias Intact Above 20-Day EMA
From a technical standpoint, XAG/USD is trading flat near $65.40, consolidating after its recent advance and maintaining a position above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $61.66. This placement above the short-term trend indicator suggests that underlying buying interest remains resilient.
The Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 61.17, indicating positive momentum while remaining below overbought territory. This configuration implies that buyers are still in control, with scope for further gains if resistance levels are breached.
| Technical Indicator | Level / Reading | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Spot price (XAG/USD) | $65.40 (approx.) | Range-bound in Asian session |
| 20-day EMA | $61.66 | Key dynamic support and bullish pivot |
| Relative Strength Index (14) | 61.17 | Positive momentum, not yet overbought |
| Immediate resistance | $66.59 | Break higher would signal upside continuation |
| Upside target | $71.19 (June 16 high) | Potential objective if consolidation resolves higher |
On the downside, the 20-day EMA at $61.66 acts as initial and key support. A decisive move below this level would be required to indicate that a more pronounced corrective phase is unfolding.
On the upside, a clear break above the consolidation ceiling at $66.59 would likely pave the way for a test of the June 16 peak at $71.19, assuming bullish momentum is sustained.
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