Key Moments
- Over the past year, Mastercard stock fell 2.5% while Visa gained 5.8%, creating an 8.3 percentage point performance gap.
- Visa’s recent quarterly revenue growth of 17.1% and 14.4% surpassed Mastercard’s 15.8% and 14.1%, reversing Mastercard’s earlier growth lead.
- Mastercard still shows stronger EPS growth of 22.1% versus Visa’s 10.2%, and a fair value upside of +6.8% compared with Visa’s -1.4%.
Shifting Performance Between Two Payment Leaders
Investing.com — Mastercard (NYSE:MA) has lagged Visa (NYSE:V) by 8.3 percentage points over the past year, with Mastercard shares down 2.5% and Visa up 5.8%. The primary driver, according to the data, has been a reversal in revenue growth trends that previously favored Mastercard.
In the most recent two quarters, Visa’s top-line growth came in at 17.1% and 14.4%, slightly ahead of Mastercard’s 15.8% and 14.1%. This marks a notable change from the period through mid-2025, when Mastercard consistently outgrew Visa by 2-5 percentage points per quarter.
Revenue Growth Convergence
Through Q2 2025, Mastercard routinely posted higher revenue growth than Visa, which had supported a valuation premium for MA. That dynamic has since weakened as the growth differential narrowed and then flipped in Visa’s favor.
| Quarter | MA Revenue Growth | V Revenue Growth | Growth Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 16.8% | 14.3% | MA +2.5ppt |
| Q3 2025 | 17.6% | 14.6% | MA +3.0ppt |
| Q4 2025 | 16.7% | 11.5% | MA +5.2ppt |
| Q1 2026 | 15.8% | 17.1% | V +1.3ppt |
| Q2 2026 | 14.1% | 14.4% | V +0.3ppt |
This sequence shows how Mastercard’s earlier lead – which peaked at a 5.2 percentage point advantage in Q4 2025 – has transitioned into a modest Visa edge by Q1 and Q2 2026.
Valuation Gap Narrows
The earnings multiple story reflects the same convergence. Historically, investors granted Mastercard a P/E multiple that exceeded Visa’s by 3-5 turns, justified by stronger revenue growth. That spread has largely disappeared.
The current P/E levels stand at 30.2x for Mastercard and 29.5x for Visa, a difference of just 0.7x. Looking ahead, the forward multiples show Visa trading at 26.4x, slightly below Mastercard at 28.0x, implying a small relative discount for Visa on expected earnings.
2027 Outlook and Relative Positioning
Bernstein analysts see a potential path for Mastercard to again edge out Visa on revenue growth heading into 2027, which could support a modest re-expansion of its valuation premium. Several data points underpin that view, although Visa retains important strengths.
Where Mastercard Holds the Advantage
Mastercard currently outperforms Visa on several growth and valuation metrics:
- EPS momentum: Earnings per share growth for Mastercard stands at 22.1%, compared with 10.2% for Visa, signaling stronger bottom-line acceleration.
- Implied upside: Fair value analysis points to a potential return of +6.8% for MA, versus a -1.4% indication for V, suggesting Mastercard has more room for appreciation while Visa screens slightly overvalued.
- Price targets: Consensus analyst targets are concentrated in the $600-$655 range for Mastercard and $370-$396 for Visa.
Where Visa Remains in Front
Visa continues to lead on profitability and size, providing a counterweight to Mastercard’s growth metrics:
- Margins: Visa maintains a higher net margin at 50.8%, compared with 46.3% for Mastercard.
- Scale: Visa’s market capitalization sits at $660B versus Mastercard’s $490B, alongside a larger quarterly revenue base of $11.6B compared with $9.3B for MA.
- Dividend record: Visa has increased its dividend for 17 consecutive years, while Mastercard has a 20-year streak of raises.
Scenarios: Upside and Downside Risks
Bernstein’s constructive view on Mastercard hinges on several growth drivers. The positive case highlights continued high-teens expansion in Value-Added Services, improving cross-border volumes, and contributions from agentic commerce initiatives. Together with 22% EPS growth, these factors point to operational leverage that could restore a more pronounced growth gap in Mastercard’s favor.
On the downside, if Visa sustains revenue growth in the 14-17% range while Mastercard continues to slow from its latest 14.1% print, Mastercard’s valuation could face additional pressure before any premium returns. Another potential catalyst is the outcome of Visa’s DOJ case, where a resolution could support a valuation re-rating for V.
Investment Takeaways Into Late 2026
The available data indicates that much of the long-running gap between Mastercard and Visa has already closed, both in terms of revenue growth and valuation. The central question for investors is whether Mastercard’s stronger earnings growth and perceived fair value discount will translate into renewed outperformance, or whether Visa’s superior margins, scale, and structural strengths will keep the two names closely aligned.
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