Corn Futures Rebound as Wheat Rally Lifts Market Sentiment

Key Moments

Corn futures are trading 3 to 4 cents higher on Wednesday morning, supported by strong gains in wheat.
Condition ratings in Monday’s Crop Progress report held steady at 61% good to excellent, with notable regional deterioration and improvement across several states.
Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect U.S. corn yield at 182.4 bushels per acre and new crop ending stocks at 1.725 bbu ahead of the NASS Crop Production report.

Early Wednesday Trade Supported by Wheat Strength

Corn futures are firmer by 3 to 4 cents in early Wednesday action, buoyed by double-digit gains in the wheat market. The recent strength follows a softer close on Tuesday, when corn contracts finished 1 to 2 cents lower across the board.

Open interest declined by 17,119 contracts, driven primarily by activity in the nearby September contract as market participants continued to roll positions forward. The CmdtyView national average cash corn price slipped by 1 cent to $4.07 3/4.

Weather Concerns: Storms and Potential Derecho

Storm systems moved through portions of the I-states and Ohio on Tuesday, bringing flash flooding and pockets of intense rainfall. Strong winds also accompanied the storms. The NWS Storm Prediction Center reported preliminary indications consistent with a derecho stretching from eastern IA to northern IN. At this stage, the extent of actual damage has not yet been determined.

Corn Crop Conditions Hold Steady Overall

Monday’s Crop Progress report showed national corn condition ratings unchanged at 61% rated good to excellent. The Brugler500 index was also steady at 356.

However, underlying state-level trends were mixed. Declines in condition ratings were observed in:

ND (-26)
MI (-13)
MN (-8)
WI (-7)
IA (-6)
SD (-3)

Offsetting some of that weakness, improvements were reported in:

IN (+4)
KS (+5)
NE (+8)
TN (+1)

Market Expectations Ahead of NASS Crop Production Report

Before the release of the latest Crop Production report from NASS, a Reuters poll of analysts points to an expected U.S. corn yield of 182.4 bushels per acre, with projections ranging from 180.5 to 184.8 bushels per acre. Total production is forecast at 15.934 bbu, based on an anticipated reduction of 76,000 harvested acres.

For balance sheets, old crop ending stocks are seen at 1.999 bbu, 21 mbu lower than the prior month. New crop ending stocks are projected at 1.725 bbu, a 65 mbu decrease from earlier expectations.

Brazilian Export Outlook

ANEC now pegs August Brazilian corn exports at 5.17 MMT, an increase from last week’s estimate of 4.08 MMT.

Corn Futures and Cash Market Snapshot

Recent settlement and current price indications for key corn contracts and cash markets are shown below:

Contract / Cash	Most Recent Close	Change at Close	Current Move
Sep 26 Corn	$4.36 3/4	down 1 1/2 cents	currently up 3 1/4 cents
Nearby Cash	$4.07 3/4	down 1 cent	–
Dec 26 Corn	$4.60 1/2	down 1 1/4 cents	currently up 3 1/4 cents
Mar 27 Corn	$4.76	down 1 1/4 cents	currently up 3 1/4 cents
New Crop Cash	$4.11 1/1	down 1 cent	–