Key Moments
- EUR/JPY trades around 183.80 during Asian hours on Tuesday after only modest gains in the prior session.
- The cross stays below the 50-day EMA at 184.57 while hovering just above the nine-day EMA at 183.34, signaling a mildly bearish near-term setup.
- Markets are pricing in roughly a 50% probability of a 25bp BoJ rate hike in September and a full hike by year-end, according to BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong.
Technical Picture: Bearish Tone Persists Below 183.00-184.00 Zone
EUR/JPY is easing after recording only limited gains in the previous session, with the pair changing hands near 183.80 during the Asian session on Tuesday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 47.63, remaining just under the neutral 50 threshold and pointing to a bearish undertone that has not yet reached oversold territory.
The cross continues to reflect a slightly negative short-term bias as it trades beneath the 50-day Exponential Moving Average at 184.57, while at the same time staying marginally above the nine-day EMA at 183.34. This alignment indicates that EUR/JPY is effectively boxed in between immediate support and overhead resistance, leaving prices exposed to additional downside pressure as long as the longer-dated moving average restrains the upside.
Key Support and Downside Levels
The first notable support is located at the nine-day EMA at 183.34. A clear move below this short-term gauge would strengthen the bearish narrative and could open the way for a deeper pullback.
In such a scenario, sellers may look toward the eight-month low at 179.37, which was reached on August 3, as the next potential downside marker. Below that, attention would likely shift to the nine-month low at 175.70 as another significant level on the chart.
Upside Scenario and Resistance Markers
On the topside, EUR/JPY would need to reclaim the primary resistance at the 50-day EMA at 184.57 to ease immediate downside risks. A sustained break above this medium-term moving average would signal an improving technical backdrop and could trigger a more constructive phase for the cross.
If buyers manage to establish control above the 50-day EMA, the pair could then attempt to revisit the area around the all-time high at 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
Shifting Policy Expectations for the Bank of Japan
Policy expectations around the Bank of Japan have been evolving. BNY’s Wee Khoon Chong notes that there has been a meaningful adjustment in market pricing, stating that “markets now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a 25bp BoJ hike in September and a full hike by year-end,” highlighting increasing confidence that the BoJ will further scale back its ultra-accommodative stance over the coming months.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Performance Against Major Currencies
The table below summarizes the percentage change of the Euro (EUR) versus major currencies today. According to the data, the Euro was weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.01% | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.07% | -0.07% | -0.06% | -0.01% | |
| EUR | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.04% | -0.06% | -0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | 0.02% | -0.04% | -0.04% | -0.03% | -0.04% | 0.01% | |
| JPY | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.06% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | 0.06% | 0.04% | -0.00% | 0.02% | -0.00% | 0.05% | |
| AUD | 0.07% | 0.04% | 0.03% | -0.01% | -0.02% | -0.01% | 0.04% | |
| NZD | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.04% | -0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% | 0.06% | |
| CHF | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.01% | -0.06% | -0.05% | -0.04% | -0.06% |
The accompanying heat map illustrates how major currencies have moved against one another. The base currency is selected from the left-hand column, and the quote currency is chosen from the top row. For example, selecting the Euro as the base currency on the left and then moving horizontally to the US Dollar column shows the percentage move for EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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