Key Moments
- WTI futures climbed to a four-day high during the Asian session as tensions around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz supported prices.
- Iran signaled that talks with Oman on a safe shipping corridor are close to agreement, while reiterating conditions for a full reopening of the waterway.
- WTI is trading above the 200-period SMA at $76.80 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $76.42, with momentum indicators pointing to cautiously constructive upside.
Supply Concerns Underpin WTI as Week Begins
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the key US crude oil benchmark, started the new week in positive territory, buoyed by geopolitical tensions linked to the US-Iran confrontation over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. During the Asian session, prices advanced to a four-day high, with bullish participants now looking for a firm move and sustained trade above the $78.00 level before committing to a more aggressive upside stance.
Iran indicated that discussions with Oman aimed at creating a secure shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz are close to being finalized. At the same time, Iran reiterated a series of prerequisites for a complete reopening of the critical passage, including an end to the US naval blockade, the lifting of sanctions, and compensation for war-related damage.
In a further escalation of regional risk, Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen claimed responsibility for a recent attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery. This development has helped maintain a geopolitical risk premium in crude markets, offering additional support to WTI prices.
Technical Setup: Bulls Lean on Key Moving Average and Fibonacci Levels
On the technical front, WTI continues to show a mildly bullish profile as prices hold above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently located at $76.80, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the July advance, positioned at $76.42. These overlapping levels create an important technical floor that market participants are closely monitoring.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is marginally above the neutral 50 line, hovering near 54, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory. The combination of these momentum gauges indicates that upward momentum is present but not yet in overstretched territory, suggesting room for further gains if buying interest continues.
| Technical Level | Indicator | Role | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 200-period SMA | Moving Average | Support | $76.80 |
| 61.8% Fib (July upswing) | Fibonacci retracement | Support | $76.42 |
| 50% Fib | Fibonacci retracement | Initial resistance | $79.43 |
| 38.2% Fib | Fibonacci retracement | Next resistance | $82.43 |
| 23.6% Fib | Fibonacci retracement | Higher resistance | $86.15 |
Upside Hurdles and Downside Risk Levels
If buying momentum persists, the next immediate obstacle on the upside is located at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $79.43. A successful break above that threshold could open the way for a further advance toward resistance near the 38.2% retracement around $82.43 and then toward the 23.6% retracement zone near $86.15, should bulls press their advantage.
On the downside, the 200-period SMA at $76.80 forms the first notable support layer, followed closely by the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $76.42. These overlapping zones create a key confluence area. A decisive move below this band would undermine the current constructive bias and raise the risk of a deeper corrective phase in WTI.
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