Key Moments
- Speculative net long positioning in LME copper rose by 12,668 lots to 60,771 lots in the week ending 24 July.
- Net long positions in LME aluminium and zinc saw only modest increases, up by 96 lots and 4,107 lots respectively.
- Tight supply conditions and low inventories supported a more positive mood across the base metals market.
Positioning Shifts in LME Copper
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey reported a pronounced build-up in speculative net long positions in LME copper, based on the latest Commitments of Traders report (COTR). According to their analysis, “The latest COTR report shows that the speculative net long position in LME copper increased by 12,668 lots to 60,771 lots in the week ending 24 July.”
They noted that the shift in copper exposure reflected a broader improvement in sentiment, with market participants responding to signals of constrained supply and depleted inventories. “The move was driven by increased participation from both long and short positions.”
Comparative Moves in Aluminium and Zinc
While copper positioning shifted more significantly, Patterson and Manthey observed that speculative activity in other base metals was more subdued. “Positioning changes in other base metals were more modest, with money managers increasing their net long in LME aluminium by just 96 lots to 59,264 lots, while the net long in zinc increased by 4,107 lots to 39,736 lots.”
Despite the smaller changes in aluminium and zinc, the analysts emphasized that “Tight supply conditions and low inventories lifted broader market sentiment.”
Summary of Speculative Positioning
| Metal | Change in Speculative Net Long (lots) | Total Speculative Net Long (lots) | Reference Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| LME Copper | +12,668 | 60,771 | Week ending 24 July |
| LME Aluminium | +96 | 59,264 | Week ending 24 July |
| LME Zinc | +4,107 | 39,736 | Week ending 24 July |
Broader Market Backdrop
According to the ING commentary, the uptick in speculative net long positions, particularly in copper, aligned with perceptions of tighter market fundamentals. The combination of restricted supply and low stock levels was cited as a key factor underpinning the more constructive stance among money managers across the base metals complex.
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