XRP and XLM Hold Tight Ranges as Breakout Odds Build

Key Moments

Derivatives Metrics Signal Conflicting Positioning

Ripple (XRP) and Stellar (XLM) traded in constrained ranges on Tuesday while traders weighed mixed messages from the derivatives complex. Positioning data pointed to a cautious stance, even as funding dynamics leaned in the opposite direction.

According to CoinGlass, the long-to-short ratio for XRP stood at 0.88 on Tuesday, while XLM’s ratio was at 0.81. With both readings below 1, derivatives traders were positioned more heavily on the short side, reflecting expectations that prices may decline.

In contrast, perpetual futures funding rates indicated a constructive tilt. XRP’s funding rate turned positive on July 14 and remained in positive territory on Tuesday at 0.0081%. For XLM, the funding rate moved into positive territory on Monday and registered 0.0068% on Tuesday. These positive funding rates show that long positions were paying shorts, a structure typically associated with bullish sentiment, adding to the overall sense of indecision.

On-Chain Flows Show Diverging Underlying Tone

On-chain and market data from CryptoQuant also depicted a mixed backdrop. For XRP, spot and derivatives markets showed significant activity from large holders, with other indicators described as neutral. This combination supported the potential for a recovery scenario, though without a clear confirmation of trend direction.

In contrast, XLM data reflected selling-side dominance in both spot and futures markets, again accompanied by large whale participation. This pattern suggested that traders were adopting a more cautious stance, restraining the scope for any meaningful rebound in the near term.

XRP Technical View: Bearish Momentum Eases but Resistance Looms

XRP changed hands at $1.11 on Tuesday following a modest rebound in the prior session. Despite the uptick, the token remained below its short-, medium- and long-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), limiting the near-term bullish case even as downside momentum appeared to be fading.

The 50-day EMA at $1.14 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1.13 sat just above the market, forming the first cluster of resistance. Momentum indicators were more balanced, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 51 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram in positive territory, suggesting that selling pressure was weakening rather than definitively reversing.

On the upside, immediate resistance was concentrated between the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1.13 and the 50-day EMA at $1.14. Beyond that, a broader resistance zone emerged around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $1.21 and the 100-day EMA at $1.23. Higher levels included the 50% retracement at $1.27 and a horizontal cap at $1.28, ahead of deeper retracement resistance at $1.34, which marked a more distant upper boundary.

On the downside, the nearest key support was the psychological $1.00 level, described as a horizontal floor where buyers would be expected to step in to defend the broader bullish cycle.

XLM Technical View: Price Holds Near Support as Consolidation Continues

Stellar’s XLM token traded at $0.187 on Tuesday, consolidating beneath the 50-day and 100-day EMAs clustered around the same price area. This configuration kept the short-term bias tilted to the downside despite a subtle improvement in momentum.

The price was trading slightly above the 100-day EMA at $0.187, signaling tentative underlying support. The RSI hovered near 47, while a mildly positive MACD reading indicated that current price action was more consistent with consolidation than with aggressive, directional selling.

On the topside, the first notable resistance level was the 50-day EMA at $0.189. Above that, the 200-day EMA at $0.196 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $0.200 formed the next significant resistance band.

On the downside, initial support came from the 100-day EMA at $0.187, followed by a horizontal support level at $0.177 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $0.173. A deeper downside cushion was identified at the horizontal level of $0.142 if bearish momentum were to reassert itself.

Key Levels Overview for XRP and XLM