Key Moments
- WTI trades above $74.00 after a bullish gap at the start of the week, supported by rising US-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The price structure maintains a short-term bearish tone while it stays below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $76.58 and the 200-day EMA at $77.19.
- Key resistance levels are clustered between $76.58 and $98.71, while major downside support is located near the prior swing low at $67.08.
Geopolitical Risk Supports Early-Week Gains
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, extends its initial bullish gap at the start of the new week and trades above $74.00 during the Asian session on Monday. The move is supported by a further escalation in tensions between the United States and Iran, together with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which introduces additional uncertainty into the energy complex and lifts crude prices.
Technical Picture: Bearish Bias Persists Below Key Averages
From a chart perspective, WTI continues to show a negative short-term bias while it remains capped beneath the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April-July decline. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive, indicating that upside momentum is starting to rebuild.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 47, still below the neutral 50 line. This configuration points to recovery attempts taking place within a constrained structure rather than signaling a definitive shift into a sustained uptrend.
Key Technical Levels: Resistance and Support Map
Further price appreciation is expected to encounter initial resistance around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $76.58. Just above that level, the 200-day EMA, currently around $77.19, forms part of the first important supply zone that buyers would need to clear in order to alleviate prevailing downside pressure.
Beyond that initial band, additional resistance is located at the 38.2% retracement around $82.45, followed by the 50% retracement close to $87.20 and the 61.8% level near $91.95. A higher barrier is seen at $98.71.
On the downside, the primary structural support is aligned with the previous swing low near $67.08. A decisive break below that level would leave the door open for a continuation of the broader bearish phase.
| Level Type | Indicator | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate resistance | 23.6% Fibonacci retracement | $76.58 |
| Key moving average | 200-day EMA | $77.19 |
| Higher resistance | 38.2% Fibonacci retracement | $82.45 |
| Higher resistance | 50% Fibonacci retracement | $87.20 |
| Higher resistance | 61.8% Fibonacci retracement | $91.95 |
| Upper barrier | Resistance | $98.71 |
| Major support | Prior swing low | $67.08 |





