Dovish NBP Signals Put Pressure on Polish Zloty Outlook

Key Moments

NBP Holds Rates but Shifts Tone

Commerzbank analyst Tatha Ghose notes that the National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% and reiterated a neutral policy stance. The central bank also released updated macroeconomic projections that were characterized as stagflationary.

According to the new Inflation Report, the projected mid-point for consumer price inflation (CPI) in 2026 was raised by 0.60 percentage points to 2.85%. The 2027 CPI mid-point was increased by 0.35 percentage points to 2.75%. At the same time, the NBP slightly reduced its GDP growth forecasts for those years by 0.20 percentage points and 0.15 percentage points, respectively.

Glapinski’s Press Conference Turns the Narrative Dovish

While the formal decision and projections appeared cautious, Commerzbank highlights that the subsequent press conference by Governor Adam Glapinski dramatically shifted the policy narrative.

Ghose reports that Glapinski described the Monetary Policy Council as “cautiously dovish” and himself as “decidedly dovish”, and he openly discussed the possibility of proposing a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, provided no new shock materializes.

Glapinski acknowledged that the normalization of fuel taxes would push inflation higher in the near term, but he argued that CPI would remain within the NBP’s 2.5%±1 percentage point target band. He pointed to slower wage growth, softer commodity prices, and what he described as a benign growth outlook as factors that, in his view, support a more dovish inflation assessment.

Limited Concern Over External Shocks and FX Moves

Commerzbank emphasizes that Glapinski did not express significant concern about second-round inflation effects stemming from the Iran-related shock. In addition, he appeared relaxed about the recent weakening of the Polish Zloty, reiterating only that the central bank could intervene in the foreign exchange market if currency moves became “too sharp”.

Ghose interprets these comments as confirmation that the next policy move is more likely to be a rate cut rather than a hike, and that markets could start to price this scenario for the fourth quarter.

Implications for PLN Relative to CZK

Commerzbank notes that Glapinski’s unexpectedly dovish stance came against the backdrop of a deterioration in the Iran situation in the preceding days and forecast adjustments that appeared consistent with that risk. This, in the bank’s view, removed a key potential support for the Polish currency – the notion that geopolitical risks might force the NBP into a more hawkish posture.

With the Czech National Bank (CNB) still perceived as having a more credible hawkish bias, Commerzbank now expects the Polish Zloty (PLN) to underperform the Czech Koruna (CZK) over the coming quarter as investors anticipate easier policy in Poland.