Bitcoin Recovery Faces Long-Term Holder Pressure

Key Moments

Market Structure Remains Under Pressure

Glassnode analysts reported that, despite Bitcoin’s recent rebound, the asset has not yet broken out of bearish territory. According to the firm, Bitcoin has continued to trade below both the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holders (STHs) cost basis of $72,200.

“Until these levels are reclaimed, the market remains in deep value territory and structurally vulnerable to any external negative catalyst,” Glassnode wrote.

Capitulation Among Long-Term Holders

The report identified long-term holders (LTHs) as the dominant source of realized losses and selling pressure. The portion of total realized value tied to LTH losses has increased from 15% in early February to 43%, highlighting intensified capitulation among investors who accumulated near the prior cycle peak.

“This dynamic directly explains why price has struggled to reclaim the upper band of the current range, as each attempted recovery is met with a fresh wave of distribution from this underwater cohort,” the analysts wrote.

Glassnode noted that realized losses from coins held for more than 155 days have continued to rise rather than normalize. Entity-adjusted realized losses for this group recently reached around $280 million per day, the highest level since December 2022.

“Unlike the first spike, which was followed by a partial cooldown, the current wave has not yet contracted to lower levels,” the firm noted, adding that a meaningful decline in realized losses would be needed before a convincing transition back to a bull market could emerge.

ETF Flows and Institutional Activity

Institutional demand has stayed muted even as some indicators have stabilized. The 30-day moving average of net flows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has improved from peak outflows of $193 million per day in early June to $88.9 million per day.

“While the deceleration in outflow pace is a tentative positive, the market remains in a net bleeding state on a monthly basis,” the report stated.

Trading volumes in spot Bitcoin ETFs remain soft as well. Daily turnover has moved in a range of $650 million to $950 million, which is roughly 80% below the $4.4 billion daily peak reached in October 2025. This sharp decline in activity underscores that institutional conviction has not yet recovered.

Derivatives Point to Cautious Improvement

Glassnode observed early signs of improved sentiment in derivatives markets. The BTC Options Put-to-Call ratio has fallen to 0.56, its lowest reading of the year, suggesting fewer protective put positions relative to calls. At the same time, perpetual futures funding rates indicate that traders have modestly tilted toward long exposure instead of heavily positioning for further downside.

Despite that shift, options pricing continues to embed notable downside risk. The 25-delta skew is positive across all maturities, showing that market participants are still willing to pay a premium for downside protection even as overall positioning becomes somewhat more constructive.

“Every selloff since the winter has re-bid it, and late June’s spike to 24% was the most defensive the front end has been since the February selloff,” Glassnode added.

Bitcoin is currently trading about 6% below the aggregated options max pain level of $66,000.

“A sustained reclaim of $66K would shift the near-term read constructive, while a further widening would reinforce the defensive positioning evident across the options surface,” the firm stated.

Spot Price Snapshot

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at $62,012, down 2.5% over the previous 24 hours.