Bitcoin Long-Term Buyers Return as ETF Selling Persists

Key Moments

Long-term Bitcoin holders have shifted back into net accumulation after months of distribution, according to Glassnode.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered a record $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, with BlackRock’s IBIT responsible for $3.55 billion over nine straight sessions.
Bitcoin long-term holder supply has risen to about 14.7 million BTC while Bitcoin trades around $59,550, up 2.4% in the past 24 hours at the time of writing.

Long-Term Holders Resume Net Buying

Glassnode reported that long-term Bitcoin (BTC) investors have restarted net accumulation, taking in supply even as US spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to see negative flows.

The firm noted that long-term holders (LTHs) have moved back into a net accumulation posture following an extended phase of distribution. This development is emerging while Bitcoin trades close to $60,000 and is being interpreted as a sign of gradually improving conviction among committed investors.

Glassnode emphasized that the intensity of current long-term buying is still below the strong accumulation phases that characterized earlier bull cycles, but it nonetheless marks a clear shift in behavior.

“Although it is too early to call this a full accumulation regime, the return of persistent long-term buying provides an encouraging signal that conviction is beginning to rebuild beneath the surface,” Glassnode wrote.

According to the firm, previous episodes in which long-term holders moved from net distribution to net accumulation have tended to occur during softer market conditions, as more patient participants absorb coins from shorter-term holders.

Accumulation Spreads Across Wallet Cohorts

Glassnode highlighted that the renewed buying interest is not confined to long-term holders alone. The Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score indicated that accumulation has become increasingly widespread across various wallet size categories.

The report cited particularly strong activity among smaller investors with balances below one Bitcoin, as well as entities controlling between 100 and 1,000 BTC.

The firm said that the improvement across multiple wallet bands signals a gradual rebuilding of confidence following the latest market pullback. At the same time, it cautioned that continued and sustained accumulation will be required to confirm a more durable recovery.

Wallet Cohort	Observed Behavior
< 1 BTC	Strong accumulation activity
100 – 1,000 BTC	Strong accumulation activity
Long-term holders (LTHs)	Return to net accumulation after months of distribution

ETF Outflows Highlight Institutional Caution

In contrast to on-chain behavior, institutional participation via US spot Bitcoin ETFs has remained under pressure. Glassnode noted that the seven-day moving average of US spot Bitcoin ETF flows has moved further into negative territory, even after a short-lived improvement in May. These persistent outflows have coincided with Bitcoin’s slide back toward $60,000.

“The persistence of redemptions suggests institutional investors remain in a defensive posture, reducing exposure rather than stepping in to absorb the recent weakness,” the report stated.

Glassnode pointed out that this divergence between long-term on-chain investors and more price-sensitive institutional ETF holders reflects the current market mood. While LTHs are stepping in to take supply off the market, ETF investors have not yet demonstrated the same degree of conviction.

The firm indicated that any meaningful stabilization in ETF flows will likely depend on a broader improvement in market sentiment.

Record June Outflows from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs

US spot Bitcoin ETFs logged their weakest month since launch in June, with a record $4.5 billion in net outflows. According to the report, BlackRock’s IBIT was responsible for $3.55 billion of those redemptions over nine consecutive trading sessions.

Instrument	Net Outflows (June)	Notable Detail
US spot Bitcoin ETFs (aggregate)	$4.5 billion	Weakest month since launch
BlackRock’s IBIT	$3.55 billion	Redemptions over 9 consecutive trading days

Macro Headwinds and Competition for Risk Capital

Nansen Senior Research Analyst Nicolai Sondergaard attributed the sustained ETF redemptions to macroeconomic challenges and competing demands for risk capital, rather than a complete breakdown in confidence toward Bitcoin itself.

“Two events compressed simultaneously to produce the streak: the SpaceX IPO in mid-June absorbed billions in discretionary risk capital, and the first FOMC meeting under Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish pivot that removed near-term rate cuts from the table,” Sondergaard told FXStreet.

Sondergaard said that shifting expectations for interest rates have further pressured institutional allocations. He pointed out that the 10-year US Treasury yield reached 4.49% and that bond futures priced in more than an 85% probability of an additional rate hike before year-end.

He also noted that exchanges have seen net outflows of roughly 5,500 BTC over the past week, which he interpreted as a sign of continued distribution.

On-Chain Signals and Market Positioning

According to Sondergaard, long-term holder supply has reached a record level of around 14.7 million BTC. At the same time, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score has compressed toward levels that have historically aligned with major market cycle lows.

“The onchain and derivatives layers are saying different things about the same market,” Sondergaard said, suggesting that macroeconomic indicators will play a decisive role in determining whether institutional investors re-engage in July.

Current Market Level

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $59,550, representing a 2.4% gain over the past 24 hours.

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