Key Moments
- Gold (XAU/USD) has fallen for a third straight session and now trades below $4,000.
- The US Dollar has strengthened on Fed rate-hike expectations and uncertainty over US-Iran talks, which pressures bullion.
- Markets now wait for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the ECB Forum and key US data for fresh direction.
Gold Extends Losses Below $4,000 as Dollar Holds Firm
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to face selling pressure for a third session and trades below the key $4,000 level ahead of Wednesday’s European session. The metal sits near Tuesday’s low, its weakest level since November 2025. Meanwhile, a stronger US Dollar adds pressure. It gains support from uncertainty over US-Iran negotiations and expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, which keeps the tone bearish for bullion.
Geopolitical Risk and Fed Expectations Support the Greenback
US negotiators Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff arrived in Qatar on Tuesday to discuss an initial framework aimed at ending the war in Iran. However, Tehran rejected any meeting with US officials. As a result, hopes for a lasting deal remain weak. At the same time, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have lifted inflation concerns. Together with a solid US labor market, this supports expectations for tighter Fed policy and strengthens the US Dollar.
Resilient US Data Reinforces Hawkish Fed Narrative
On Tuesday, the JOLTS report showed US job openings rose to 7.594 million in May, a two-year high. In addition, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index improved to 91.2 from 90.6. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack also said she may support further rate hikes if inflation stays high. Meanwhile, CME FedWatch pricing now shows over an 80% chance of a rate hike by year-end.
This mix of data continues to support the US Dollar and keeps pressure on gold in the short term. However, traders remain cautious. They now wait for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the ECB Forum in Sintra. Later, the ADP employment report and ISM Manufacturing PMI may also drive volatility in XAU/USD.
Upcoming Data: Focus on Warsh and US Labor Reports
Attention now shifts to Thursday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report. Together, these events suggest the broader bias for gold remains negative. Even so, short-term rebounds may still attract selling interest.
Technical Picture: Bears Maintain Control Near Year-to-Date Low
Gold trades below its 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart, which keeps the short-term trend bearish. The MACD sits slightly below its signal line. At the same time, the RSI moves closer to 40. These signals suggest that upside attempts may remain limited.
| Technical Level | Description | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate resistance | 100-period SMA on 4-hour chart | $4,161.80 |
| Key support | Year-to-date low area | $3,943–$3,942 |
A move above the 100-period SMA at $4,161.80 would weaken the bearish outlook. In contrast, a break below $3,943–$3,942 would open the door to further losses.
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