WTI Pauses Decline as Hormuz Uncertainty Clouds Outlook

Written by Sandra Leggero

Sandra Leggero has a background in financial markets, having spent more than 9 years in commodities trading for several European and Asian companies. She holds a degree in Economics from the University of Pavia and specializes in emerging markets.

, | Updated: June 29, 2026

Key Moments

WTI is trading roughly flat around $70.00 after a nearly 25% decline in recent weeks.
Reports indicate the US and Iran have agreed to halt recent attacks, while the timing of renewed peace talks remains uncertain.
The status of shipping and sovereignty in the Strait of Hormuz is unclear, with Iran and Oman asserting control and Western agencies raising threat levels.

WTI Holds Near $70 as Recent Selloff Loses Momentum

Crude Oil prices are trading sideways on Monday, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering close to $70.00 per barrel. The recent downward trend in prices, which has played out over the past few weeks, has paused as markets digest renewed tensions between the United States and Iran and conflicting signals about conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.

After a decline of nearly 25% over recent weeks, WTI is stabilizing as traders reassess geopolitical risk. News that Washington and Tehran have agreed to cease last weekend’s reciprocal attacks has removed some immediate downside pressure, but the outlook for peace negotiations is still opaque.

Mixed Signals on US-Iran Peace Process

Price action in WTI has been shaped by shifting expectations around the US-Iran peace track. According to Axios, which cited US officials, negotiations are planned for this week. However, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that there is currently no schedule for meetings with US technical delegations, highlighting a gap between different accounts of the process.

This divergence is contributing to investor caution, as participants weigh the potential for further de-escalation against the possibility of renewed strain if talks fail to materialize or stall.

Strait of Hormuz: Conflicting Messages on Sovereignty and Security

The status of the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as an additional focal point for markets. Iranian authorities indicated on Monday that vessels may transit the strait, provided they receive authorization from Iranian authorities. Gharibabadi posted on X that Iran and Oman exercise sovereignty over Hormuz and recently convened a meeting to address shipping-related issues in the waterway.

At the same time, media reports point to heightened security concerns. The US CNN News Channel reported on Monday that the US Navy has raised the alert level for ships passing through Hormuz to “significantly high.” Separately, the United Kingdom Maritime agency, UKMTO, has increased its threat level designation for the area to “substantial” following recent incidents involving commercial vessels, according to Euronews.

Market Reaction: Decline Pauses, Upside Still Capped

WTI has fallen by almost 25% over the last three weeks, giving back a large portion of earlier gains as optimism about progress in US-Iran peace efforts fueled expectations of a faster reopening of Hormuz. The latest developments have slowed that retreat, with traders waiting for more definitive information on the peace process and shipping conditions.

For now, the downturn appears to have paused, but attempts to push WTI meaningfully higher remain constrained as the market seeks clearer direction from both diplomatic and security fronts.