Key Moments
- AUD/USD continues to trade in a tight range just above 0.7000 for a third straight session during Asian hours on Monday.
- A hawkish Federal Reserve stance and weaker risk sentiment are supporting the US Dollar, while RBA signals of possible further hikes are cushioning AUD downside.
- Technical signals remain broadly bearish, with AUD/USD below its 100-day SMA and key Fibonacci levels, while RSI near 37 and a negative MACD point to ongoing downside pressure.
Range-Bound Trade Around Psychological 0.7000 Level
The AUD/USD pair is extending its recent sideways pattern, marking a third consecutive session of consolidation just above the 0.7000 psychological threshold during the Asian trading session on Monday. The cross continues to oscillate within a narrow band, reflecting a balance between competing fundamental and technical influences.
Risk-Off Mood and Fed Stance Support the US Dollar
Global risk appetite has deteriorated in response to fresh geopolitical developments over the weekend and the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. This risk-off backdrop, combined with the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone, is helping the safe-haven US Dollar pause its modest pullback from Friday’s peak, which was the highest level since May 2025. The firmer USD is acting as a drag on AUD/USD, limiting any attempts by the pair to move decisively higher.
RBA Outlook Limits Australian Dollar Weakness
On the other hand, guidance from the Reserve Bank of Australia that additional rate increases remain possible if inflation proves persistent is providing some underlying support for the Australian Dollar. This stance is helping to contain downside pressure in AUD/USD, even as broader market forces favor the greenback.
Technical Picture: Bearish Bias But Support Still Holding
From a chart perspective, AUD/USD has been demonstrating resilience below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March-May advance. This behavior is prompting some caution among sellers looking to position for deeper losses, as key support has yet to be convincingly broken.
Nonetheless, the pair recently fell below its 100-day Simple Moving Average and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the March-May move, reinforcing the case for potential further near-term downside. Momentum indicators are aligned with that view: the Relative Strength Index is hovering near 37, signaling persistent negative pressure even as price stabilizes around a key Fibonacci support zone. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is also slightly below zero and remains on a negative signal line, underscoring the prevailing bearish tone.
Despite these signals, confirmation of a sustained move beneath the 61.8% Fibonacci level is seen as necessary before targeting additional declines toward the 78.6% retracement around 0.6928 and the previous swing low near 0.6832.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
The following table summarizes the main technical reference points described for AUD/USD:
| Level / Indicator | Type | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7000 | Psychological level | Current trading zone during Asian session |
| 61.8% Fibo (March-May upswing) | Support | Price showing resilience above this area; break needed to confirm further downside |
| 0.6928 | 78.6% Fibo | Next downside target if 61.8% Fibo fails |
| 0.6832 | Prior swing base | Additional support area below 0.6928 |
| 0.7055 | 50.0% Fibo | Initial resistance on the topside |
| 0.7085 | 100-day SMA | Resistance clustered just above 0.7055 |
| 0.7108 | 38.2% Fibo | Next barrier if price holds above 100-day SMA |
| 0.7173 | 23.6% Fibo | Further resistance on sustained upside |
On the upside, the first meaningful hurdle is located at the 50.0% retracement at 0.7055. Above that, the 100-day Simple Moving Average near 0.7085 forms a cluster of resistance. A convincing break above this region would open the way to the 38.2% retracement at 0.7108, followed by the 23.6% retracement at 0.7173.
TradingPedia.com is a financial media specialized in providing daily news and education covering Forex, equities and commodities. Our academies for traders cover 
