Key Moments
- EUR/JPY traded 0.26% higher near 185.85 as a finalized US-Iran peace framework supported risk sentiment.
- ECB officials flagged persistent near-term inflation risks even after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The BoJ is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 bps to 1% at its interest rate decision on Tuesday.
Euro Outperforms in Risk-On European Session
The Euro (EUR) advanced against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European session on Monday, with EUR/JPY trading 0.26% higher near 185.85. The single currency outpaced most major peers as investors reacted to the finalization of a peace framework between the United States and Iran, which is scheduled to be signed on Friday. The agreement has fueled a broad-based rally in risk assets across global markets.
Euro Cross Performance Versus Major Currencies
The table below reports the intraday percentage moves of the Euro relative to key major currencies. On the day, the Euro showed particular strength versus the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | — | -0.34% | -0.18% | -0.08% | -0.13% | -0.37% | -0.24% | -0.46% |
| EUR | 0.34% | — | 0.15% | 0.28% | 0.22% | -0.04% | 0.11% | -0.14% |
| GBP | 0.18% | -0.15% | — | 0.13% | 0.07% | -0.20% | -0.02% | -0.30% |
| JPY | 0.08% | -0.28% | -0.13% | — | -0.05% | -0.31% | -0.20% | -0.42% |
| CAD | 0.13% | -0.22% | -0.07% | 0.05% | — | -0.24% | -0.13% | -0.37% |
| AUD | 0.37% | 0.04% | 0.20% | 0.31% | 0.24% | — | 0.15% | -0.08% |
| NZD | 0.24% | -0.11% | 0.02% | 0.20% | 0.13% | -0.15% | — | -0.26% |
| CHF | 0.46% | 0.14% | 0.30% | 0.42% | 0.37% | 0.08% | 0.26% | — |
The heat map reflects percentage changes of major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is taken from the left-hand column and the quote currency from the top row. For instance, selecting the Euro from the left column and moving horizontally to the US Dollar cell shows the percentage move of EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Risk Assets Strengthen on US-Iran Agreement
S&P 500 futures traded almost 1.3% higher during European hours, underscoring robust demand for higher-risk instruments. On Sunday, both the US and Iran confirmed that they had reached a deal, and President Donald Trump announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz along with the lifting of the US blockade on Iranian seaports.
The completion of the US-Iran agreement led to a sharp decline in oil prices. Crude prices had previously surged during periods of conflict in the Middle East and had been a significant headwind for currencies belonging to economies heavily reliant on imported oil for their energy requirements.
ECB Stance: Inflation Risks Persist Despite Oil Relief
Elevated energy costs had earlier intensified inflationary pressures in the Eurozone and prompted European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers to raise key interest rates by 25 basis points at their monetary policy meeting on Thursday.
Despite the relief from lower oil prices following the US-Iran deal, ECB officials continued to caution that near-term inflation risks remain. ECB Governing Council Member and President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said during European trading that there appears to be no imminent easing of high inflation, noting that it will take months for oil supply conditions to normalize.
BoJ Decision in Focus as Markets Price Rate Hike
In Japan, attention is turning to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) upcoming monetary policy announcement on Tuesday. The central bank is expected to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1%.
Economic Indicator: BoJ Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) releases its interest rate decision following each of its eight scheduled meetings per year. In general, a hawkish stance on inflation that results in higher rates is considered positive for the Japanese Yen, while a dovish approach – maintaining or cutting rates – is typically negative for JPY.
| Indicator | Next Release | Frequency | Consensus | Previous | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoJ Interest Rate Decision | Tue Jun 16, 2026 03:00 | Irregular | 1% | 0.75% | Bank of Japan |





