Wheat Futures Ease After Brief Rally in Hard Red Contracts

Key Moments

Early Friday Price Action and Thursday’s Mixed Finish

Wheat futures are under pressure early Friday, with most contracts trading between 1 and 4 cents lower. This follows a marginally mixed performance on Thursday, when the hard red wheat markets advanced while Chicago contracts slipped.

Chicago SRW futures were the weakest segment on Thursday, finishing with fractional to 4 cent declines. Open interest in that market increased by 8,865 contracts. In contrast, KC HRW futures led the complex higher, gaining between 3/4 and 4 cents in the front months, accompanied by a 2,511 contract increase in open interest. MPLS spring wheat futures also firmed, ending the session between 1 1/2 and 3 3/4 cents higher.

Weekly Export Sales Overview

The FAS weekly Export Sales report released Thursday showed old crop wheat sales of 95,094 MT for the final 4 days of the 2025/26 marketing year. Unshipped old crop commitments carried over from that marketing year totaled 298,570 MT.

New crop wheat bookings came in at 666,259 MT for the week, surpassing trade expectations. Mexico was the largest buyer with 143,100 MT, followed by Taiwan at 118,500 MT and the Philippines at 116,900 MT.

U.S. Crop Production Adjustments

The monthly Crop Production report pegged U.S. winter wheat output at 1.029 bbu, an 18 mbu reduction from the previous month and below market estimates. The national yield estimate was cut by 0.8 bpa to 46.8 bpa, while harvested acreage was unchanged.

Most of the production reduction came from hard red winter wheat, which was lowered by 18 mbu to 496.9 mbu. Soft red winter wheat was trimmed by 0.6 mbu to 300.25 mbu, and white winter wheat was increased by 0.7 mbu to 232.59 mbu. White winter is expected to be down 7 mbu to 508 mbu, with SRW up 1 mbu to 302.

WASDE: U.S. and Global Balance Sheet Changes

In the latest WASDE update, old crop U.S. wheat ending stocks were left unchanged at 935 mbu. New crop U.S. carryout was reduced by 18 mbu to 744 mbu, reflecting the lower production outlook.

Global 2025/26 wheat ending stocks were raised by 0.74 MMT to 279.95 MMT. New crop world carryout increased by 0.38 MMT to 275.42 MMT. The report also lowered Australia’s production estimate by 2 MMT to 28 MMT, while Russia’s production estimate was raised by 2 MMT to 88 MMT.

European Crop Conditions

FranceAgriMer reported that 77% of the French soft wheat crop was rated in good or excellent condition, a 1 percentage point improvement from the previous week. The durum wheat crop was assessed at 64% in good or excellent condition, down 1 percentage point from the prior reading.

Current and Recent Wheat Futures Performance

Recent closes and current early Friday price indications for key wheat futures contracts are shown below.

Disclosure

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.